As a lifelong Texans fan, sitting here today it is still difficult for me to fathom that the team is 7-1 entering week ten, but here we are. This is new territory for this overlooked team from Houston that has slowly turned into a powerhouse. At this moment last year Houston was in the middle of their seven game winning streak and were a week away from Haynesworth ripping Schuab's foot in the bottom of the pile. Off to its best start in franchise history, Houston is making up for the "what ifs" of last year. This week, the top two defenses in the NFL are thrown into a pit to battle it out, and the team coming out alive will finally have a legitimate big win against a top ten team. Despite being the top two defenses, each one is great at different aspects of the game. This game has numerous possibilities, but I think I have a good grasp of what will occur.
The MoNsTeRs of Midway vs. Bulls on Parade.
Both of these teams have incredible defenses, but each excels at different aspects. The Bears have the #1 Pass Defense and Houston has the #2. The Bears strength against the passing game is due largely to their secondary. Patrick Tillman is having one of the greatest years by any cornerback and is the cornerstone of a passing D that has 17 interceptions. The Bears utilize a boom or bust defense that does allow yards (#13 in passing yds, #6 rushing) and big drives at times, but has forced 28 turnovers this year. The large split in passing yds against, and rushing yds against is the result of the big leads they have jumped to which forces teams to pass. When you watch the Bears every tackle is an opportunity to force fumbles as every player comes in gang tackles looking for the ball. Not only do they create turnovers, the Bears know what to do with the ball as well. Chicago has 7 interceptions returned for 6 and Houston is second in the league with three. The rush defense is stout as well, being #2 against the run and stuffs as well. Short yardage situations will be huge in this game because touchdowns will be hard to come by. The Bears have allowed only 9 touchdowns compared to Houston's 13 (all passing).
While the Bears defense has stemmed from high turnover rates, Houston's defense is based on their pass rush. Houston has 25 sacks, swatting balls left and right at the line of scrimmage, sending 5 or more rusher 44.5% of the time. This swarming pass rush forces Qbs to make quick decisions which often leads to mistakes (unless you are Aaron Rodgers). Interceptions are not hard to come by for the Texans since they have caught 9, but when watching them play it seems they drop a lot of potential picks as well. Houston does give up a substantial amount of rushing yards, which is due to the loss of Cushing and is the poison apple that most 3-4 defenses face. Forte should be able to break some runs up the middle against Houston. The defense is the best in the league against a team's #1 WR. This does not bode well for the Bears since Marshall accounts for 45% of Cutler's total passing yards this year. Both offenses will be out of their comfort zone.
Smoking Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning are all extremely skilled quarterbacks that can make any throw on the field and plays that leave you in awe, but all three also have games where they leave a skidmark all over the stats sheet. Each one of the bunch has great games one week followed by incompetence. I went back and looked at all of Jay Cutler's games and rated them as great, average, and poor. I rated his starts by looking at passing yards, Tds compared to Ints, quarterback ratings, and completion percentage. A great game is based off of +250 passing yards, TD>INT, QB rating+ 100, and a completion percentage greater than 65%. An Average game is classified as 200-250 yds, TD=INT, Rating 70-100, and 60-65% completion percentage. A poor game is everything else below. After ranking each of his games I came up with the following out of 79 career games Cutler has played 43 great games (54.4%), 17 average games (21.5%), and 19 poor games (24%). This compares favorably to his 46-33 career record. So far this year Cutler has played 4 great games (57%), 2 average games (28.5%), and 2 poor games (28.5%). This year Cutler has played the same as he has historically and his shaky offensive line has not helped him any. His great games this year have come against Indy, Dallas, Jacksonville and Tennessee. Each of the four do not have a defense nearly as good as Houston's. It will be interesting to see which Jay Cutler we see this Sunday night.
The Trenches
Both teams have elite defensive lines, but Houston's offensive line is colossally better. I previously discussed Houston's pass rush that loves to blitz and forces QBs into making quick throws. This is much different than the Bears who have 25 sacks all by their front 4. Duane Brown has yet to give up a sack this season and he should be matched up against the All-Pro Peppers. On the flip side J.J Watt will line up all over the place as he looks to build on his NFL leading 10.5 sacks and is wanting to add Cutler to his list of QBs he has grounded to the ground.The Bears O-line has the worst sack rate in the NFL, giving up a sack rate of 10.5% and 28 total. Based on this I could see poor J'Marcus Webb getting verbally assaulted by Cutler again. Despite the Bears O-line's pass block failures they are a decent run blocking team that gets stuffed often, but is good in short yardage situations. Houston's offensive line has been awesome to say the least even after losing pieces to it. They have a sack rate of 4.5%, number 6 in the NFL and has only given up 10 sacks all year. Most football games come down to the line of scrimmage and this game should be no different.
The Decision
This will be a hard fought game as each time tries to silence doubters and beat a big name opponent. If Houston wins it will be a huge step towards a #1 seed in the playoffs and more breathing room over the Colts. For this game the Bears have the opportunity to keep the NFC North lead as the Packers are hitting another gear and are looking more like their 13-0 selves from last year. After looking sluggish against the Bills last week I think Houston will come out firing against the Bears. The play action will be effective against the risk/reward Bears defense. J.J Watt and company will get to Jay Cutler early and often, leading to mistakes and another talking head debate of "will Cutler ever completely get it?" Regardless, it will be a close game since both defenses will dominate. As long as Houston does not turn the ball over and feed the Bear's defensive touchdown total, they will win this game and improve to 8-1. Houston wins 24-13 and is a step closer to the #1 spot.
The MoNsTeRs of Midway vs. Bulls on Parade.
Both of these teams have incredible defenses, but each excels at different aspects. The Bears have the #1 Pass Defense and Houston has the #2. The Bears strength against the passing game is due largely to their secondary. Patrick Tillman is having one of the greatest years by any cornerback and is the cornerstone of a passing D that has 17 interceptions. The Bears utilize a boom or bust defense that does allow yards (#13 in passing yds, #6 rushing) and big drives at times, but has forced 28 turnovers this year. The large split in passing yds against, and rushing yds against is the result of the big leads they have jumped to which forces teams to pass. When you watch the Bears every tackle is an opportunity to force fumbles as every player comes in gang tackles looking for the ball. Not only do they create turnovers, the Bears know what to do with the ball as well. Chicago has 7 interceptions returned for 6 and Houston is second in the league with three. The rush defense is stout as well, being #2 against the run and stuffs as well. Short yardage situations will be huge in this game because touchdowns will be hard to come by. The Bears have allowed only 9 touchdowns compared to Houston's 13 (all passing).
While the Bears defense has stemmed from high turnover rates, Houston's defense is based on their pass rush. Houston has 25 sacks, swatting balls left and right at the line of scrimmage, sending 5 or more rusher 44.5% of the time. This swarming pass rush forces Qbs to make quick decisions which often leads to mistakes (unless you are Aaron Rodgers). Interceptions are not hard to come by for the Texans since they have caught 9, but when watching them play it seems they drop a lot of potential picks as well. Houston does give up a substantial amount of rushing yards, which is due to the loss of Cushing and is the poison apple that most 3-4 defenses face. Forte should be able to break some runs up the middle against Houston. The defense is the best in the league against a team's #1 WR. This does not bode well for the Bears since Marshall accounts for 45% of Cutler's total passing yards this year. Both offenses will be out of their comfort zone.
Smoking Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning are all extremely skilled quarterbacks that can make any throw on the field and plays that leave you in awe, but all three also have games where they leave a skidmark all over the stats sheet. Each one of the bunch has great games one week followed by incompetence. I went back and looked at all of Jay Cutler's games and rated them as great, average, and poor. I rated his starts by looking at passing yards, Tds compared to Ints, quarterback ratings, and completion percentage. A great game is based off of +250 passing yards, TD>INT, QB rating+ 100, and a completion percentage greater than 65%. An Average game is classified as 200-250 yds, TD=INT, Rating 70-100, and 60-65% completion percentage. A poor game is everything else below. After ranking each of his games I came up with the following out of 79 career games Cutler has played 43 great games (54.4%), 17 average games (21.5%), and 19 poor games (24%). This compares favorably to his 46-33 career record. So far this year Cutler has played 4 great games (57%), 2 average games (28.5%), and 2 poor games (28.5%). This year Cutler has played the same as he has historically and his shaky offensive line has not helped him any. His great games this year have come against Indy, Dallas, Jacksonville and Tennessee. Each of the four do not have a defense nearly as good as Houston's. It will be interesting to see which Jay Cutler we see this Sunday night.
The Trenches
Both teams have elite defensive lines, but Houston's offensive line is colossally better. I previously discussed Houston's pass rush that loves to blitz and forces QBs into making quick throws. This is much different than the Bears who have 25 sacks all by their front 4. Duane Brown has yet to give up a sack this season and he should be matched up against the All-Pro Peppers. On the flip side J.J Watt will line up all over the place as he looks to build on his NFL leading 10.5 sacks and is wanting to add Cutler to his list of QBs he has grounded to the ground.The Bears O-line has the worst sack rate in the NFL, giving up a sack rate of 10.5% and 28 total. Based on this I could see poor J'Marcus Webb getting verbally assaulted by Cutler again. Despite the Bears O-line's pass block failures they are a decent run blocking team that gets stuffed often, but is good in short yardage situations. Houston's offensive line has been awesome to say the least even after losing pieces to it. They have a sack rate of 4.5%, number 6 in the NFL and has only given up 10 sacks all year. Most football games come down to the line of scrimmage and this game should be no different.
The Decision
This will be a hard fought game as each time tries to silence doubters and beat a big name opponent. If Houston wins it will be a huge step towards a #1 seed in the playoffs and more breathing room over the Colts. For this game the Bears have the opportunity to keep the NFC North lead as the Packers are hitting another gear and are looking more like their 13-0 selves from last year. After looking sluggish against the Bills last week I think Houston will come out firing against the Bears. The play action will be effective against the risk/reward Bears defense. J.J Watt and company will get to Jay Cutler early and often, leading to mistakes and another talking head debate of "will Cutler ever completely get it?" Regardless, it will be a close game since both defenses will dominate. As long as Houston does not turn the ball over and feed the Bear's defensive touchdown total, they will win this game and improve to 8-1. Houston wins 24-13 and is a step closer to the #1 spot.
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