14-2 Or Bust
As of right now, we are a little less than twenty four hours away from game one of the Texans Colts two game series. A couple of years ago the NFL made a scheduling change to put divisional games at the end of the season to make weeks 16 & 17 more meaningful. As a result, Houston is playing Indy two games in three weeks with the AFC belt and playoff positioning dangling waiting for the winner of this ladder match to snag it. Houston is trying to recover from a vintage New England beat down that plummeted them back to Earth. Whereas the Colts came back from behind again and beat the Titans to push their record to 9-4 which keeps them alive in the AFC South hunt. For Houston this game is more than just winning the division. Houston still has its hands clasped around the #1 seed in the AFC at 11-2, but they are just one game up on the Pats (tie breaker over Houston) and Broncos (Houston has tie breaker over). I still believe for Houston to have a chance to reach the Superbowl they need to get the bye (don't have to play Colts or Pats until the AFC title) and have home field advantage (don't have to go to NE or DEN). After losing to the Pats last week they will probably need to win out to make this dream a reality unless the Pats lose to the Niners. Houston must respond and play their best game against the magical Colts to keep the dream alive. The Football season starts in September, but playoff teams are made in December.
Are the Colts Any Good?
The Colts are in the midst of a Disney like season with their eyes set on the playoffs after being one year removed a 2-14 heartless, Manningless season . Despite their record, the real question that remains is, are the Colts any good? This year the Colts are 9-4, but they are 8-1 in one score games. 8-1! The only team they beat by more than one score was the Jaguars, a game they won 27-10. This stat is extremely unsustainable, despite the emotions they play with every week. In losses the average game score is 39.25-17.75. That is a margin of 21.5 that adds up to three TDs. The Colts have lost to Chicago, Jacksonville, New York Jets and New England. Their average record equal out to losses is 6.5 wins but the Jags 2-11 record really brings this average down. In games they have won the average score is 24.5-19.1, a margin of 5.4. The average record of teams they have beat is 5-8. Indy is 7-1 against teams below 500, have yet to beat a team above 500 since Green Bay which is also the first game Bruce Arians coached. Since Arians has taken over for Pagano the Colts are 8-2. When given this data its easy to see the Colts are not very good and either lucky or magical. When emotion comes into play in athletics, the unbelievable usually happens and the Colts are an example of this. Since Pagano has started his chemotherapy for Leukemia the Colts have won in wild ways. However, being 8-1 in one score games and having an average win margin of 5.4 is not going to last. Even if you look at DVOA the Colts are ranked 28th and their one score game record has catapulted them into the playoff race. Regardless of their record, the Colts are an average team at the least.
Raining on the Parade
The Houston D has been awful since the Jacksonville game and most of this blame can be placed on the passing defense. The past month of football has seen atrocious pass defense for Houston. Part of it is due to injuries, but poor performance and schemes is the main reason why they have been awful. Henne, Stafford, Locker, and Brady have combined for an average completion percentage of 51%/11 Tds/3 Ints/11 sacks (6 against TEN) and an average quarterback rating of 96.7. The results have yielded some exciting games and three wins, but not the performance that they are capable of. The biggest problem has been the big play, Cecil Shorts, Blackmon, Calvin Johnson, and Lloyd all have made plays of 30+ yards. Daunte Stallworth caught a 63 yard TD pass even, Daunte Stallworth of all people. Yes Joseph was out for three of those games, yes Quin has been hurt, yes Reed is gone, but it is no excuse for how they have been playing. Monday Night Football was extremely frustrating because of how Wade called the game. Linebackers were covering Welker and Hernandez throughout the first half and were burned as a result. Every time Brady saw this match up he attacked it and destroyed Houston's defense. In the second half, he did a great job putting Manning on Hernandez and corners on Welker, but by the third quarter the game was already over.
Hopefully this disturbing trend shifts toward Houston's favor against Andrew Luck. This year Luck has a line of /3,792/55%/18TDs/18INTs/74. Luck is having one of the greatest seasons a rookie quarterback has ever had. As a result, Indy puts the entire offense on Luck's arm every game because of the all the one score games they play. They need for him to make huge plays and game winning drives to reach their 8-1 one score record. He has made some mistakes by trying to force the ball where he should not. Despite his 18 INTs, without Luck, Indy would be a 4-12 team. In losses Luck has a line of 1,236/50.8%/5TDs/9INTs/61. He is the key to their 9-4 record since they live and die on his arm. This week Indy will be missing two starting offensive lineman, Winston Justice (RT) and Samson Satele (C) and they pressure on Luck will only increase. For Houston to beat Indy they can not let Luck make big plays down the field like opposing quarterbacks have the past month.
If Houston wins they clinch the AFC South and retain the #1 seed with Minnesota and Indianapolis to end the year. For Houston to beat Indy they need to have the pass rush dialed up and beat up on their second string offensive lineman. Look for Watt and Mercilus to have huge games rushing the quarterback. If Houston puts pressure on Luck he will make poor throws which lead to interceptions. The offense should be able to run rampant and hopefully ubiak calls a more unpredictable game. The run run pass offense is going to have to go for them to win in the post season and they need to change it now. Last team Houston lost they went on to win six straight games until falling to New England. This team is too good and too proud to not play their best game on Sunday. I think Houston will pick off Luck, get a big lead and win huge. Watch out if it comes down to a close game because Indy has been otherwordly in close games. I see Houston showing Indy that faires are not real by winning 31-10. Bust out the Listerine because we are getting the awful taste out of our mouth and bringing the AFC South title back home. Go Texans.
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