Four weeks ago every fan and player was on the verge of climaxing at the prospect of a bye week and then having to beat the Ravens/Colts/Bengals to enter the AFC championship. After starting the season off 11-1, with eyes fixed on a Superbowl appearance, the Texans tumbled from the #1 seed to the #3 seed after going 1-3. As a result, they are now playing Wild Card weekend instead of getting vacation time. The Bengals on the other hand have broken through the wall of mediocrity. After starting the season 3-5, they have managed to go 7-1 and actually beat a team over .500. If Houston wins they then go to New England with the chance of avenging a nauseous, 42-14 loss to the Patriots. If the Bengals win they would be going to Denver, unless the Colts manage to beat the Ravens in Ray Lewis' last game. Here is everything you need to know for the 3:30 game in Reliant Stadium.
Momentum
Every analyst, talking head, SC anchor and fan is already writing the Texans off this post season because of momentum. The advanced Stats have shown the disparate movement of the Texans from a top team in weeks 1-8 to an average one the rest of the season (scroll down for the table). However, none of this talk was heard when Houston beat the Bears on the road and won two OT games in five days. Instead, the talk was how resilient Houston is and how they are able to do anything to manage to win. Now that they have lost 3 of their last four, all against playoff teams, the talk is how they are cold and will be bounced out in the first round. The Bengals have all the "momentum" on the other hand since they finished 7-1 (only one win .500 team, the Giants who in the middle of a terrible run, not counting week 17 when all the backups played). Cincinnati has played better in the second half, but only have wins against the AFC West cellar dwellers, Giants, Eagles and a tough win against the Steelers. They have played better than Houston in the second half, but the record is mostly because of schedule difference.I was tired of listening how important momentum is in the playoffs almost as much as hearing Wanted-Glad you Came while at the bar or on the radio. So I went back and looked at the record for every playoff team's last four games of the regular season and then took the record of their first playoff game. I came up with the chart as followed.
Record Wins Losses Percentage
1-3 4 3 .500
2-2 9 7 .562
3-1 13 12 .520
4-0 6 6 .500
There are a lot of other factors that go into these numbers like overall record entering the last four weeks, defensive, and offensive rankings. However, the main goal is just disproving the talk of the Texans having poor momentum because of their record these last 4 games. If anything being 1-3 down the stretch is better than going 4-0. Just because the Bengals went 3-1 (7-1 down the stretch) and Houston went 1-3 (5-3 down the stretch) does not give the Bengals any momentum down in this game.
For some historical hope for the Texans chance of a deep playoff run. The Texans could end the season like the Jets in 2010. The Jets started off 9-2, then went 2-3 to end the year (2-2 last 4) and upsetted the Colts in Indy and won in NE only to lose in the AFC championship to the Steelers. Like the Jets, the Texans started off strong, lost a bye because of losses at the end of the year, but still managed to make it to the AFC championship. However, no team playing in the Superbowl has ended the year 1-3. Now that momentum is not important in this game, let's look at the actual matchups.
Arian Foster vs the Bengals Defense
The offense has been soft and flabby of late. They have only managed 65 points in their last four games at an average of 16.25 a game. This is horrendous compared to their first 12 games when they averaged 29.25 points a game. Why has there been such a drop off when their yards gained fall in to roughly the same averages? The main reason is poor play on third downs and too many red zone field goals. Houston has been able to move the ball, only to give up a negative play or penalty that crushes their touchdown chances. Graham has kicked 7 field goals from 20-40 yards. These are drives that Houston has gone deep enough to get TDs only to fall short. This must change if they want to beat the Bengals today. I am going to punch a hole in the Ozone if Graham kicks another 24 yard field goal.Arian Foster is going against another tough defense this year. These last four games he has looked tired and not his usual self. His yards per carry has plummeted, but this is mostly due to the fact the cutback has not been there. Opposing defenses are starting to stay in their lanes against the zone and bottle him up. Schuab will need to get the playaction going to help open the game for Arian, not the other way around. Foster has played well against top defenses this season (using DVOA). Carries Yards Yards Per Carry
Chicago #1 ranked defense 29 102 3.52
Denver #5 ranked defense 25 105 4.2
Miami #14 ranked defense 26 79 3.04
NYJ #9 ranked defense 29 152 5.24
NE #15 ranked defense 15 46 3.07
A good day from Foster should be expected. I am sure he will get at least 25 carries and should have around 100 yards. The Bengals have the #10 defense and a run defense that allows 107.2 a game. Hopefully, Kubiak keeps Arian fresh and we see at least 10 carries from Tate/Forsett.
Dre and A.J
This year the 31 year old Andre Johnson ended all talks of who the best wide receiver in the AFC is after a year of 112 catches on 164 targets, 1,598 yards and 4 touchdowns. A.J Green, 97 catches on 164 targets, 1,350 yards and 6 touchdowns will eventually take over Dre's throne as father time takes over. Both of these WR have had incredible years, but they should be harassed all day by the opposing pass defense. Houston ranks #4 and Cincinnati ranks #9 against a team's #1 wide receiver. 31% of Dalton's throws have gone towards AJ Green, but only 59.1% have been completed. Houston must not let Green beat you deep and force incompletions. Look for Houston to run a zone, but always have Joseph or Jackson covering him in man coverage. For either team to win they must not let these top wide receivers to gallop freely across the field.Despite, both of these teams ability to stop the #1 WR, they have been sub par when covering the #2 WR. Houston ranks #28 and Cincinatti ranks # 22 in the league. The good news for both defenses is that each QB does not throw the ball anywhere other than their top #1 WR, TE, or RB.
Walter- 41 catches 68 targets 518 yards 2 TD
Hawkins- 51 catches 80 targets 533 yards 4 TD
Both of these players have about the same averages and each is overshadowed by their teams top WR. These last 4 weeks Walter has only seen 10 targets compared to Andre's 50. Walter/Martin/Jean/Posey should get open on a deep pass and Schuab must complete it. Also in losses Schuab has thrown 0 TDs and 5 INTs. Most of these picks have not been a result have a bad decision, but a poor throw to a receiver that has a step on the defender. Both quarterbacks must move the ball around and whoever is most successful in this aspect may very well win the game.
The Trenches
Each team's defense is led by a great defensive line. Watt has had the greatest season statistically of any defensive lineman in the history of the NFL. However, the Bengals have an All Pro on their line as well with Geno Atkins delivering pressure up the middle. Both offensive lines will have to neutralize either one to keep their offense in a rhythm. The Bengals O-line is ranked 28th in the league with 46 sacks and a rate of 8.3% and their defensive line is #2 with 51 sacks and a sack rate of 8.7%. The Texans defensive line is #6 with 44 sacks and a 7.2% sack rate while their O-line has allowed 28 sacks at a rate of 5.3%. Houston's O-line is marginally better than Cincy's on the ground as well. Based on the overall numbers Houston does have an advantage, but their O-line play has been suspect lately. If Houston's front seven can keep the run game to a minimum and force 3rd and 7+ look for their pass rush to abuse the Bengals offensive line. The two big match ups in this area will be Watt against Andre Roberts and Geno against Ben Jones and Wade Smith. Each team will probably run to the opposite side of these two in order to fine success running the ball, but you can't throw away from a pass rush. I believe that whichever offensive line is able to negate the others front seven the most will win.The Prediction
This game should be a physical, hard hitting, old school game and most likely it will be like the Bear's game in week 8. The Bengals have a similar team, one that is led by a top WR, great defense and an inconsistent QB. The past 4 weeks don't matter and the regular season schedule is wiped clean. Whoever wins this game will be the one with the better offensive line and which one is able to stop the passing game. Arian and Ellis will be fed the ball consistently, but I can't see them being able to do much more than 4 yards a carry. It will come down to Andre or Green making a big play and the quarterback utilizing his receiver's other than the big names. The past 4 weeks has displayed a Texans team from some weird alternate reality and not the team Houston really is. They will cut loose and will 20-13 in a close game.This is the part where analyst hat gets tipped into the air, picked off and taken for a touchdown right before the end of the half. I will always have love for Cincinatti, Houston clinched their first AFC South Title against them, won their first playoff game against them and I did enjoy my time living 15 minutes South of the Ohio River. However, Cincinatti has nothing on the Greatest Nation on Earth.
Shiner > Christain Moerlein Brewing Company
Whataburger > Skyline Chile
The Ballpark in Arlington > Great American
Tubing in a river > Finding Dead Bodies in a River
Manifest Destiny > NW Ordinance of 1785
UGK > 98 Degrees
Texans > Bengals
Go Texans. Let's go back to New England next weekend.
Picks for the Wild Card Round
Colts over Ravens
Texans over Bengals
Redskins over Seahawks
Packers over Vikings
49ers over Pats in Superbowl
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