Texans vs Jaguars Week 11

Raguars?

          Coming off fresh from one of the greatest wins in franchise history, the Houston Texans migrate back home to the greatest nation on Earth to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. This has been a tale of two season for each of these franchises. Houston is 8-1, has a top 5 defense, a punishing rushing game, an efficient passing game, and currently has a 100% chance to make the playoffs. The Jaguars are the polar opposite. They are currently sitting in the basement of the AFC South, boast a -119 point differential, are last in total offense, passing yards, sacks, and are in the bottom half of every team defense category. The good news? The Jags have a 49.1% chance of snagging the #1 pick in the NFL draft and a 86.3% chance of drafting in the top 3.  Jacksonville has been atrocious in every department of the game and it does not look like the sun will be peering out from the clouds anytime soon. Jacksonville last played Thursday night against the Colts, a game that they lost in prime time 27-10. Their heads should stay down against the Texans this week. 

A Tale of Two Franchises 

          In 2003, both the Texans and Jaguars finished with a 5-11 season, but the Texans seemed to be headed on the downturn and Jacksonville climbing its way back up.  The Jaguars had just drafted their QB of the future, Byron Leftwich, and had a stout front seven headlined by John Henderson, Marcos Stroud, Hugh Douglas, and Mike Peterson. In 2004, the Jags benched Mark Brunell in favor of the rookie and the defense finished #7 in the league as the Jags went 9-7, and finished one game out of a playoff spot. Leftwich threw for nearly 3,000 yds, 60.5% completion and 15 Tds, compared to 10, and looked like an everyday starting quarterback that he was drafted to be. Fred Taylor carried the offense running for 1224 yards and two touchdowns.  The infamous David Garrard also started his first game as a pro in place of the injured Leftwich. The following year in 2005, the Jaguars carried this momentum under head coach Jack Del Rio and went 12-4 finishing right behind the 14-2 Colts, landing them a wild card spot into the playoffs. While the Jaguars were in the midst of a dream season, the Texans nightmares continued as they went 2-12, earned the #1 pick and the annihilation of the Dom Capers' regime. 

          That year, Leftwich went 8-3 as a starter, throwing for 15 tds, 5 int, a 57.9% completion percentage. His break out season turned into a nightmare in a week 12 win against Arizona. On his first offensive snap Byron was sacked by Adrian Wilson, the hit broke his ankle and he would miss the rest of the year.  David Garrard would take over the reigns and Jacksonville won in spite of him as they went 4-1 to finish the season. The Jags would go on to lose 28-3 in the first round of the NFL playoffs. The following year Jacksonville went 8-8 and again Leftwich's season ended abruptly after having ankle surgery. Garrard would go on to be the starter since that point and Leftwich was cut the following season in training camp. David would lead the team to a 11-5 season, beat the Steeler 31-9 in the wild card round only to see the dream end against the 16-0 New England Patriots. Since the 2007 season the Jags have yet to have a winning season. For the 2007 season the Texans cut David Carr, traded for Matt Schuab and started building the framework for the team they have in place today. The Jags are a completely different franchise today, but their losing ways have continued. This is mainly because of their horrible drafts. The Jaguars do not have 4 of their last 7 first round draft picks on their roster and Gabbert looks to be following the status quo. Since the Jaguars 2007 run they have a record of 26-47 and the Texans have gone 41-32 and are on the way to becoming an AFC South dynasty (barring Andrew Luck turning into Texans killer Peyton Manning 2.0).

Blaine Gabbert

          For someone to say Gabbert has been adequate is just lying to themselves. There are a lot of factors that go into a quarterback's success, like the play makers he has around him, an offensive line that can give him time, and a defense that has the ability to give him a short field to work with. The Jaguars plan was to cultivate him by letting him learn the tools necessary under David Garrard, however that plan was obliterated when they released Garrard a week before the 2011-2012 season began. Jacksonville went with Luke McCown as their opening starter, but pulled him in favor of Gabbert in the fourth quarter after being down 32-3. Gabbert was thrown into the fire and forced to learn on the go (It was Del Rio's last chance as the coach of the Jaguars and he went with trying to win now instead of letting Gabbert learn and sit). Last year the Jags ran the ball on average of 30.6 times a game  and tried to let Gabbert make throws only when necessary. During the 2011-2012 season They threw the ball only 469, compared to running it 489 times. During Gabbert's rookie year, he posted a 4-10 record, 50.8% completion percentage, threw for 12 TDs and 11 INTs for 2214 yards. However, Gabbert was sacked 40 times on 8.8% of his drop backs.
          This year has been most of the same except Gabbert has been throwing the ball even more. The Jaguars have ran the ball only 169 times and are ranked 31 in the NFL. The Jags have thrown the ball 319 times and a ratio of 1.88 throws per run which is very different than the .959 ratio they posted in his rookie year. This added pressure has made Gabbert's job even more difficult. This year he is 1-8 as a starter, thrown for 1638 yds (5.9 yds/attempt) has a completion percentage of 58%, 9 TDS, 6 INTs, an average quarterback rating of 76.9 and has been sacked 21 times. Gabbert's performance has been abysmal to say the least, but when you take in other factors he his even worse. Football outsiders have him ranked as the 3rd worst QB in the NFL, only above Weeden and Cassel. In his career he has thrown for 250+ yds once, never thrown for more than 2 touchdowns, and has finished a game with a quarterback rating of 26.7. When you watch him play he struggles making deep throws, looks scared in the pocket, takes off at the slightest sign of trouble and looks flustered all of the time. The NFL is a quarterback league now and the Jags have been volatile in this position every season since Mark Brunell's glory days. The good news is Gabbert is only 23, the bad news is his greatest moment in his career is this.

The Prediction

          Houston is in the midst of a dream season as every part of their game has excelled. They dominate the running game, make the big passing plays when needed to, and their defense is one of the best in the league. Jacksonville has been as useful as a poopy flavored lollypop. Their running game has been non existent since Jones Drew has been injured. Justin Blackmon, their first round pick, still has yet to make an impact and their defense is always on the field (30th in Time of possession an average of 26:53). After Sunday's game, Houston faces a short week since they are playing Thanksgiving night in Detroit. Houston should take care of business and jump to a big lead. The offensive line will control the game from the first snap, Foster will cut through the line like a ninja and Schuab will make big throws when the time is right. The Defense will force long 3rd downs which will lead to turn overs and the game should be over before the half time show. Hopefully, they can rest Foster for the second half and let Forsett take on the load. Houston will go up 21-0 in the first half, let their starters sit and get ready for the Detroit Lions on Turkey Day. Texans win 28-10.