Pies on Pies on Pies
Coming fresh off the kookiest, zaniest, wackiest game in franchise history, the Houston Texans head up North to take on the Lions on Turkey Day. I remember growing up hating Thanksgiving football. The games were always awful, the match ups unbearable, and hoping the Cowboys would lose was the only fun thing to do. One thing I am thankful for is the reversal of this trend. Other than the 11:30 Houston game, RGIII makes his national game debut against the Cowboys and tonight the Patriots take on the Jets. The past couple of years has seen some notable games: the Suh stomp, Cowboys turnover parade in a 20-19 win against the Dolphins and the Harbaugh Bowl. The biggest reason for this is the emergence of the Lions as a playoff contender. After picking in the top ten year after year, the Lions made the playoffs last year for the first time since 1999 when they went 8-8 and Gus Ferotte was their starting QB. Despite all the talent Detroit has this year, they are sitting at 4-6 and are facing a must-win game to keep their feeble playoff hopes alive. Houston is playing 90 hours removed from their OT win looking sluggish and waterlogged. Regardless of the outcome in today's game, let's just hope it is more exciting than the Macy's Day Parade. So let's take out the turkey, smash some yams, mash some taters and delve into this one.
The Turkey
First let's go over the main course for each of the teams. The Lions' most important component is their passing game. The Lions lead the league with 3,018 passing yards (3,160 not including losses), but it is extremely inefficient. The Lions use the passing game to gain most of their yards, but they do throw too much. They only average 7.2 yards a pass (19th in the league), complete 62.5% of their passes (13th in the league), and have given up 22 sacks. Detroit has one of the best quarterbacks to receiver combos with Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Johnson has caught 65 passes for 1117 yards, at an average of 16.2 yards a catch (ten yards more than the team average), and has caught 23% of the Lions' completed passes. Even though Calvin averages this much, the Lions have been just o.k. at completing the deep pass down the sidelines. They have a completion percentage of 37% on passes deep left and 43% deep right. Stafford has done a great job throwing deep down the middle, going 15/23 for 223 yards and three touchdowns. However, most of the throws the Lions make are short passes. They have thrown 346 short passes compared to only 243 rushing attempts. Detroit has yet to play a game where they have thrown less than 30 times and in 7 of their 10 games they have thrown for 40+ times. The Lions focus way too much on their passing game to move the ball down the field. Despite their gaudy numbers, the Lions passing statistics are not due to a great passing game, but an inefficient offense that overthrows. Their passing stats are as bloated as America will be after their second helpings today. It would be a great offense for fantasy football, but does not lead to results in reality.
Houston's offense is the antithesis of the Lions. Houston rams the ball down the defense throat to open up the pass. Houston leads the league with 350 running attempts for 1380 yards. Like the Lions' passing game, the Texans game is a little inefficient. One would like to see them throw the ball to open up the running game since they do have the ability to do so. Foster leads the league with 249 carries (37 more than #2 Marshawn Lynch), and is on pace to run 400 times this season. He will easily eclipse the haunted 370. His huge amount of carries is due to the Tate injury, but Forsett has really excelled as the #2 running back. Ben Tate is supposed to play today for the first time since week 7 against Baltimore. I hope to see Foster get limited carries since the Chicago game seemed to take a lot out of him. The running game will have its hands full trying to move Fairley, Suh and Vanden Bosch. Despite their talent, the Lions are ranked 14th against the run, and have given up 4.3 yards against the run. I hope to see Tate and Forsett take on the load and move the ball on the average Lions defense.
Potatoes, Stuffing, and Casserole
The Lions do have good pieces on offense other than Johnson and Stafford. Mikel Leshoure has been worth the second round pick they used on him. This year he has ran for 502 yards, averaging 4 yards a carry and has 5 touchdowns. Instead of throwing the ball short they should feed him the ball more often. Detroit has done a good job running the ball on the left side behind Jeff Backus who might have to sit out this game due to injury. Riley Reiff, their first round pick, will end up starting in his place if he does sit out. He should have his hands full in his first career start having to go up against JJ Watt and Antonio Smith. Titus Young has been a great #2 wide receiver for the Lions as the cranberry sauce to Calvin's turkey. This year he has caught 33 catches for 383 yards and 4 touchdowns. His play this year has made it difficult to double team Calvin Johnson. On defense Durant and Tulloch have been stout line backers as each has 59 and 44 tackles. Their secondary has been beat up this year. They have given up 2,140 yards passing and a completion percentage of 66.5%. Despite the pieces, the Lions have underperformed so far this year. Usually when this is the case it is because of the head coach. The Lions do have good sides, but they have yet to play up to their standards.
Houston has played great overall as a team. They have players who fill in at those complimentary roles that usually go unnoticed. Glover Quin has turned into one of the top nickle corners in the league, Martin has emerged into a threat on offense and James Casey does it all. Houston has 3 guys that can line up in the TE spot and make a difference. The defense has been so good that they still cannot find time for Whitney Mercilus to play. However, if the pass defense looks anything like it did last week, they are doomed. Kareem Jackson ended extinguished all momentum of him being the #1 corner he was drafted to be after last week's effort. His poor tackling led to a 67 yard Cecil Shorts touchdown and Blackmon beat him up all day. Watt, Barwin, and Reed should be able to get to Stafford with the rookie, making his first career start at LT. Hopefully, they shake him up and kill his confidence early in the game. Houston's complimentary pieces have been dominating every game so far this year (except for Green Bay).
The Pie
The Pie (X-Factor) of this game will be Keyshawn Martin. Last week he gave a jump start to the miserable Texans return game and he caught his first touchdown pass of his career when he beat Ross on a post route for the first score of the game. On kick off returns he had 5 returns for 162 yards at an average of 32.4 yards including a 54 yarder. On top of kick returns he returned a 71 yard punt only to be chased down by the punter. This jolt to the return game was a refreshing glass of milk after a piece of pumpkin pie. Thanks to his performance they went from last in the NFL to number 30 in special teams. The past couple of years Detroit has been terrible on special teams and Martin will get the chance to exploit this weakness.
The Decision
If last week did not happen I would have picked the Texans in a heartbeat. If they took care of business early, jumped to a big lead, and was able to rest their starters this would have been a different game. Chad, my favorite pasta is penne Henne, threw for 354 yards against a tired beat up secondary. If he was able to do that, Stafford has the chance to throw for 400. Thursday games have been extremely sloppy and the Texans looked beat up last Sunday. For Houston to win they need to let Stafford throw short and force field goals. They will have to run the ball then use play action to beat the shaky secondary, then suffocate the Lions offense with their pass rush after getting a two possession lead. I would love for this to happen, but I think after the short week and the toll the Bears game had on them, the Lions win 31-17. Houston drops to 9-2 and the Pats Texans game in week 14 becomes that much bigger. Regardless of who wins, eat until you can't eat anymore.
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