Texans Vs Vikings Week 16 Preview

           Week 16 boasts a match up between the Texans and Vikings that is detrimental to the NFL playoff picture. Houston is 12-2 and clinches home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the oppurtunity to rest its players in week 17. The Vikings are part of the Bears, Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants, 8-6 conglomerate that need to win out to punch their ticket to keep playing in January. After Houston on Sunday, the Vikings get to play the Packers at home.  This week two records in the NFL record book remain up for smashing.  Adrian Peterson is only 294 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's 28 year record of 2105 yards rushing in a single season (apparently he plans to break it this Sunday). Houston's JJ Watt is only 3 sacks away from Michael Strahan's 22.5 single season sack record. This week's game is a battle of comfort vs survival in the playoff picture.

Pondering Ponder

          Young, raw, inexperienced opposing quarterbacks has been a trend for the Texans schedule this year. Tannehill, Gabbert, Locker, Luck and now Ponder joins the list. So far the Vikings still do not know what they have in Ponder, mainly because the offense is much more focused on Adrian Peterson's ability. This year Ponder has been a below average quarterback, but is above the Matt Cassel, John Skelton group. Just like Locker, Ponder is an exceptional athlete with a strong arm and extremely fast, but has yet to learn the nuances to play NFL quarterback at a high level. This year Ponder has a stat line of 63.1%/2527/14TDs/12INTs/78.6 and 51 rushes for 189 yards. His numbers are typical for a player in his first year as a full time starter, but unlike most young quarterbacks Ponder is in a great position to succeed. With Peterson running the way he has Ponder has faced lots of defensive sets with eight men in the box. These types of situation is what Schuab has been devouring all year long with the play action. One would think Ponder could do the same since he can run as well, but has yet to produce. His offensive line is hard to judge because Adrian Peterson inflates their ability, but it is safe to say there are better at run blocking than pass protecting. Ponder has been sacked 30 times at a rate of 7.2% which ranks 20th in the NFL. The WR group is not nearly the same without Harvin playing. Harvin still leads the team in receptions, targets, and yards even though he has yet to play since week 9 because of an ankle injury. Despite the o-line and WR group Ponder should be playing much better because of Adrian Peterson.
          Let's dive  into the Harvin injury and how it has affected Ponder's play.
                    Attempts Completions Percentage Yards    TD   INT    Rushes  Rating 
With Harvin    171             262               65.2%  1,806    10      8       29/127   78.26
W/O Harvin    97               163               59.5%     721      4      4       22/62      70.4
          Ponder has not been as good without Harvin. Without Harvin, Ponder loses the ability for big plays in the passing game. He only has 13 passes of 20 yards or more to a player not named Harvin and 4 of those are to Rudolph. His best receiver other than Harvin is TE, Kyle Rudolph who has 48 catches for 434 yards and 8 touchdowns. Ponder has been been impotent when it comes to completing passes to his wide receivers. Their number one wide receiver since Harvin has been hurt is Michael Jeinkens who averages 25.6 yards a game. Ponder has only gotten worse as the season has gone on since his hot start. The link attached shows his splits by month. In December Ponder has thrown for 341 yards, 1TD, 3 INT, and a completion percentage of 60%. The most important factor when looking at Ponder's season is that he really does not matter. His numbers are no different in games they have won when comparing them to losses. The Vikings offense has one job and that is to give it to Peterson. This strategy has worked this year, but Ponder is going to have to progress for the Vikings to ever make a deep run in the future.

Adrian Peterson is not human

          The average human needs about seven to nine months to recover from an ACL tear. Most NFL players who suffer a knee tear like him usually miss a year and are never the same. Adrian Peterson is no average man.  After tearing his ACL to shreds on Christmas Eve last year, Peterson came back at full force on September 9th this year. Running harder than he ever has, with scar tissue tearing as he gallops, Adrian Peterson is going to break the NFL rushing record. Not only that he his leading a team that should be 6-10 to a chance at 10-6 and a postseason berth.

 Player A: 289 Attempts 1812 Yards 6.27 yards a carry 11 Tds 20 20+ Runs 70 first downs

Player B:

325 Attempts 1313 Yards 4 yards a carry 14 Tds 8 20+ Runs 75 first downs

Player A is AP and Player B is Adrian Foster. By his own account Foster is having a great year, but is not even in the same solar system as Adrian Peterson. The numbers not only describe how inefficiently Foster is being used, but show how important he is in the Texans grind out offense. Peterson is having one of the greatest statistical years of all time even after being used sparingly at the beginning of the year. Not only do those numbers show how incredible he has been, Peterson has 909 yards after contact. The next best is Doug Martin with 572.Week six was the last week this year Peterson did not have a one hundred yard game. Since then he has been wreaking havoc like one of the four horseman of the apocalypse. He has 1313 yards on 176 carries, 7.46 yards a carry and 9 touchdowns. During this time period Peterson had days of 212, 210, and 182 yards and 2 games that he averaged 10 yards a carry.  The interesting part of his season is that his numbers are much worse in wins than in losses. In wins Peterson has more carries, yards and touchdowns, but his yards per carry falls. Part of this is due to the 4-1 start they had at the beginning of the year when Peterson was starting to get adjusted back into the game. The past 4 weeks the Vikings are 2-2 with 159, 119, 91, 131 yard days from Ponder and 108, 210, 154, and 212 days from Peterson. The gameplan on Sunday will be simple, give it to Peterson all day.

Texans D

          Houston's D will be up to a challenge as difficult as stopping Brady or Rodgers and we have seen how those games have gone. In the win against the Colts last week, Vick Ballard was able to run for 105 yards on 18 carries. The Colts had success in running the ball to the side opposite of JJ Watt and were able to break long runs. Houston can not let this occur this week against Peterson. Those 20 yard runs from Ballard become 80 yard runs when Peterson is in the backfield. This year Houston has allowed 1,305 yards rushing at an average of 93.2 that ranks fifth in the NFL. On top of that they have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns (the first on Thanksgiving day) and 75 rushing first downs. The most yards they have given up on the ground in one day was 158 to Chris Johnson in a 38-14 win. So far the run defense has been stout against the run and young quarterbacks. Houston is also 6-0 in games against quarterbacks with a max of two years staring in the NFL. This week also marks the return of Brooks Reed from his groin injury against the Lions. His return will add even more fresh legs to rush the passer and it will help out in coverage against Ponder's #1 target, Kyle Rudolph. Houston's defense should be looking to do one thing, stop Adrian Peterson. Antonio Smith is going to have to shore up his side of the line since Minnesota will look to run opposite of Watt. Also Houston is going to put 8 in the box so Manning should have a ten tackle game. Houston's D will have one job this weekend.
         As stated earlier Watt needs only 3 more sacks to break Strahan's ten year old sack record. There is about a 10% chance of him obtaining it this weekend. Ponder averages only 30 dropbacks a game and this number is inflated by games Vikings had to throw because of being down and the games earlier this year. Watt should be able to get one and it will be a great match up to watch him take on rookie #4 pick Matt Kalil. If Houston goes up big early, Ponder will have to throw the ball to save their season. If this situation occurs look out for Watt, Reed, Barwin and Mercilus take advantage of the Vikings 7.2% sack rate.

The Prediction

          Well here is the weekend where all the hard work for Houston finally pays off. If they win they get to stay home throughout the playoffs where the crowd noise can swing games. If they lose they have to beat Indy in week 17 to clinch. I believe Sunday will be a fast game. Both teams will run the ball and the clock will keep ticking. Peterson is looking to try to go for 294 yards and break the rushing record, but the only record he will be breaking his Chirs Johnson's record of most yards against a Texans defense. I see Peterson going for 160 and Ponder throwing for 125. Houston will get to a big lead in the third quarter and then Ponder will have to try and will the Vikings to a win. When this happens the Houston's pass rush will eat him alive like summer mosquitos in Texas. When the pass rush cranks up and the dome increases in noise, Ponder will make mistakes and thrown the ball to to Houston. Texans win 31-17 and get to rest up for the AFC semifinal. Go Texans.