Aloha!

          In today's 24 hour news cycle, yesterday's game or big trade is just crusty rancid salmon patty stuck at the bottom of the garbage disposal. People have a hard time savoring the moment and are constantly looking for what's next. For example, as soon as the Texans lost to the Pats 2 1/2 weeks ago there were already articles off season previews and mock drafts being written.This was despite the fact that the AFC/NFC championships were still a week away and the season has yet to shut its doors (That's why are Texans season review will be out next week). Everyone needs to look ahead and plan goals for the future, but people need to enjoy the game even if your team is still out of it (It never gets old hating the Pats). As a full time college student who works 30 hours a week it is impossible for me to keep up with the vicious, up to date, constantly updated "It's my money and I want it now" sports news cycle. Also even if I could I would not be a part of it. I pride myself on delivering a gluttonous, 5 course meal of in depth analysis and break downs, instead of delivering a Bleacher Report slideshow style bag of Lays article that takes 15 minuets to write. These content is king websites deliver short shallow information that can be quickly consumed, but dull the mind of actually learning anything valuable about the games we love. Just because we can now consume a lot of information does not mean a good thing if the information is a Cobb Salad from Applebee's with rats in it.
          The 2013 Pro Bowl was on Sunday and already it has been discarded into the depths of time like a Sega Saturn spinning Virtua Fighter for eternity. Despite it being out of everyone's minds I am still hesitant to be done with it. Every year the problem with the Pro Bowl is the same, it's not real football. Unlike basketball and baseball the tenacity and ferocity needed to play the game of football is out of the question to bring to a game like this (unless you are Sean Taylor). The inherent flaw is that football is a game played with emotion and the Pro Bowl strips the game of football from it. No one is out there trying to stop a RB from making a 3rd and 1, every play is and should be a pass and the reasoning to rush the QB is non existent.  It is nothing more than an exhibition game for the fans to enjoy watching their favorite players put on the pads for the last time until September and make sure no one suffers a cataclysmic injury. With that being said the Pro Bowl is still an enjoyable event if you take it for what it is. It's like going to see the newest Fast and Furious movie. You know there are going to be fast cars, explosions, women who are not going to wear very much clothing, and a incoherent plot, but it is still going to be a good time if you are expecting that and not a Kathryn Bigelow Academy Award Winner. So before the media calls for the end of a NFL all-star game and the tar and featherings occur, think about what the game actually is and enjoy it for that.

Some quick observations:

-JJ Watt can't stop, won't stop, would not even consider to stop even if it was an option (which isn't). I have never yet to see a player with the high motor that he has. Even in the Pro-Bowl he played hard and kept the V-8 running. He is they type of player with all the talent in the world like most NFL players, but what separates him is the amount of energy he brings to every snap. He's the defensive player of the year because of a combination of his strength, speed, and energy. If Albert Haynesworth ever learned this he would not be playing guitar hero right now, but actually in the NFL as a vital piece of the Redskins defense. JJ Watt is the embodiment of "hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard."

-One other note on JJ Watt. It was awesome, when they lined him up at receiver, but it seems he has already forgot how to play TE and how to catch a football. If his hands were a little bit better some of the 24 (2 in post season) passes deflected would have turned into picks and he would have had more moments like this.

-Matt Schuab still struggles to throw the deep ball. In the second quarter Schuab intended to throw a deep ball to Demaryius Thomas, only to underthrow him by 4 yards, have the ball tipped into the air and caught by a diving William Moore. It was just like the underthrow to James Casey against the Colts in week 17 that changed the out course of the game (And flushed a #1 seed down the toilet). The tail half of the year saw the degradation of Schuab as a deep ball thrower as he slowly morphed into someone who could only throw 12 yard passes to Dre.  This summer Schaub should have one thing on his mind, get his mojo back on the deep pass.

-It never gets old watching Eli Manning throw pick sixes

-The jerseys actually looked good this year, instead of looking like the past jerseys that resembled the vomit of a drunken four year old after drinking a cup of every different color of Kool-Aid.

-Like Watt, Duane Brown played hard as well, he even pancaked Julius Peppers during pass protection.

-Even in the Pro Bowl Arian Foster only runs up the middle on first down

-AJ Green is a year or two away from taking the best reciever in the AFC title belt from Andre Johnson.

-The last snap to Peyton from Jeff Saturday was a moment that hit every Colts fan right in the feels. Even though those two terrorized me during my teenage years it was still a sweet moment.

-Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth laid back, I'm in Hawai choice of wardrobe was hilariously awful.

-That was an awesome no look onside kick by the greatest modern era Cleveland Brown, Phil Dawson.

-It's illogical to look too much into the Pro Bowl, but what I enjoyed the most about the way the Texans played in the Pro Bowl was that they played like they legitimately cared and actually competed. Schuab was angry on passes he missed, Brown blocked hard, and Watt bloodied his finger. It's awesome to have a group  guys that care about bringing a title home to Texas as much as the fans want one.

         Now even though there was some good things about the Pro-Bowl it does need some changes. Not MLB like changes where the winner of the Pro Bowl automatically wins the coin toss in the Super Bowl or whoever wins gets home field advantage in the playoffs sort of changes. But changes that add more fun to the event for both the fan and the player. They should model the weekend after the NBA's and NHL's All Star game.

Friday- They should have some type of flag football game that the legends of the past to play in. Who wouldn't love to see Kurt Warner dropping bombs to Isaac Bruce down the sideline again or Neon Deion Sanders picking off Brett Favre and taking it back to the end zone. Unlike the NBA no celebrities should be allowed, no one wants to watch Beiber throw six yard slants to Chris Brown.

Saturday- Will be a skills competition just like what the NHL and NBA have.
Some events would include:
-A tug of war tourney of four teams- AFC O-line, AFC D-line, NFC O-line, NFC D-line in some type of round robin bracket where they two top teams face each other in the finals.
-A QB wide receiver competition where the QB completes passes to a receiver of his, but there is a catch. The quarterback is blind folded and the series of routes will be predetermined. Whoever completes the most wins.It would really show they sixth sense that QBs and their number one guy have in common. Everyone loves those throws where the QB knows exactly where his guy is going to be and throws it to him before he is even out of his break.
-The kickers and punters could play horse where they take turns coming up with ways to put the ball between the pylons. You know kickers have some crazy stuff up their sleeve that they come up with during the dead times of practice when they are not needed. It would be incredible to see some rugby style field goals from the sideline, and punters pinning the ball inside the 5 yard line while kicking ti backwards.
-Also if they can work anything into it from this game.

Sunday- The actual game would be played. Also players like Rodgers and Brady should be forced into playing in the game even if they are bitter about losing in the post season. 

          The main point is the Pro Bowl can be a must see event and give the fans one last glimpse at their favorite players before they climb into their hyperbolic time chambers to prepare for the next season. It's just going to take some creativity from the No Fun League to make it happen. Something that they lack which can be seen how they have handled the lockout, helmet to helmet hits, pensions for former players, and celebrations. If the NFL just think somewhat out of the box the most popular league in American professional sports could actually make a lackluster event spectacular.

The One That Got Away

          Shayne Graham (the worst 50+ yard field goal kicker in NFL history) hit a 55 yarder in Gillette Stadium with the clock at zero giving the Pats a slim 17-13 lead. It seemed like something magical might be happening after Houston went on a 10-0 run to end the half. However, Brady quickly put flour on the grease fire and outscored Houston 14-0 in the third. With the score at 31-13, I left work to hurry home and catch the end of the Texans Pats game and I thought there was a slim chance a magical comeback could still occur. Right before I hopped into my car I looked up at the fuchsia, pink and purple sun setting sky only to see a menacing waxing crescent moon mischievously grin at me. It was as if Bill Belichick himself was laughing at my futile hope of Houston hosting the AFC championship against the Baltimore Ravens and then going back in time to tell my five year old self there is no Santa Clause. When I turned the key AM 1300 coaxed me through the game until I could see it with my own two eyes at home. On 4th and One Marc Vandemeer gave me the terrible news, Matt Schuab's pass to Posey would fall incomplete and then on the next play Brady hits Vereen on a 33 yard touchdown pass to make it an insurmountable 38-13 game. When playing the Pats you have to play a perfect game, and the Texans almost did enough. If one or two things went differently it could have been Tom Brady on the couch, eating cereal in his sweat pants. However, the coaching staff failed, the offense was stagnant and as a result Houston was thrown out of the playoffs in the divisional round for the second straight year.

Son of Bum

          After Houston's week 14 loss I was expecting Wade to not make the same mistakes on defense in the rematch only to see the same critical errors play out. It felt like an Alzheimer's patient walking from Starbucks to Starbucks forgetting that they just had a non fat soy latte. It was frustrating to see Barwin or Reed blitz on every play only to not get their in time while James and Rudd were left in pass coverage. Combined Barwin and Reed had 10 tackles (one for a loss), half a sack and 3 quarterback hits. The benefit of bringing them on every down did not outweigh James and Rudd in pass coverage. Also Brady is very difficult to blitz because of how well he is able to read the defense pre-snap and his ability to get the ball out in time. When blitzing from an outside nine technique, Phillips' is putting Reed and Barwin in a nearly impossible setting to get to Brady. The pressure to get to Brady needed to come from the middle, but Phillips kept doing what did not work in week 14.
          The other problem with Phillips was the pass coverage, Shane Vereen caught 5 passes for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. Two of his long passes he caught came in situations where Vereen was split out as a wide receiver when Houston was in man coverage.When he was split out wide Rudd or James was covering him both times and Brady knew exactly where he was going to go with the ball. The first time could have simply been a misunderstanding, but to have it happen again for a 33 yard touchdown pass to end the game is ridiculous. Wade must see this play the first time and have some type of audible, instead of just letting a MLB play out wide in man coverage again.
          The final gripe I have with Wade is his inablilty to prepare for the Pats. The Pats were able to run around 12 free plays or so because Houston was not lined up right. Two of New England's red zone touchdown runs (8 yards by Ridley 24-13 and 1 yard by Vereen 7-3) were the result of Houston not being prepared for the no huddle. It was just like the week 14 touchdown pass to Hernandez in the red zone where not one person was covering him out wide. As a defensive coordinator you have to prepare for the no huddle throughout the week and at least have some type of base defense to run when Brady is scampering to the line quickly. Houston's defense did a great job disguising coverages, stopping the run and deflecting passes, but the Pats were able to break big plays that outweighed the good.

Offensive Troubles

          From the first offensive snap, Houston beat themselves. After a 94 yard return by Manning, Houston needed only 12 yards to stun the New England crowd and go up 7-0. Then the following series of plays ensued, Foster run LG for 3 yards (tackle by Wilfork), dropped pass by Casey and then a pass way over the outstretched arms of a wide open Andre Johnson. If Houston puts up 7, instead of New England's defense winning and only allowing three, the entire dimensions of the game change. The pressure would have been immediately on the Pats and Houston's offense would have had their confidence early. The Texans are a completely different team when they have a lead then when they are playing from behind.  When trying to upset the Pats on the road you have to capitalize on every opportunity given. The red zone woes that had plagued Houston the last 5 weeks haunted them again on the first drive of this game.
          The problem for Houston was not a problem moving the ball, but negative/low yardage plays on first down that forced them into long third down situations. On Sunday Houston punted the ball 5 times and each of the 5 times was a result of not getting enough yards on first down .On drives that the ended with a punt Houston averaged 1.4 yards on first down. Four of these plays were runs (-1,2,0,6) and one was an incomplete pass to Owen Daniels. Most of these drives ended with a series of run up the middle for a little or nothing and then 2 incomplete passes on 2nd and 3rd down. On most of these first down running plays New England new exactly what was coming and they would blitz up the middle making it impossible to get more than 2 yards. In addition to that, on 3 out of the 5 drives that ended with a punt,Vince Wilfork made the tackle on first down that put Houston into a hole.
         On first down Houston had 12 runs for 69 yards at an average of 5.75 and 16 passes for 170 at an average of 10.625. Now if you get rid of Arian's 2 long first down runs that led to Houston's first touchdown that number would be 2.9 yards a carry. So on average Houston would start with a 2nd and 7 after running on first down. On the other hand, Houston had ten passes for 104 yards (11.55 yards a pass) on first down before the 4th quarter when they had to throw every play. New England knew Houston would want to run the ball on first down and got caught with their pants down when they did the opposite. Instead of being unconventional and attempting different ways to beat the NE defense, Houston opted for the predictable run run pass offense.
         The other two problems Houston had on offense was in their running play selection and big plays. Last week in the preview I discussed how difficult it is to move the ball up the middle against the Pats. Trying to run the ball at Wilfork is like trying to move Snorlax to get to Fuschia City without having the PokeFlute to wake him up. So what did Houston do in the run game?

              LEFT SIDE                                         MIDDLE                                    RIGHT SIDE
  6 carries 23 yards 3.83 YPC                 17 carries 27 yards 1.58 YPC        4 carries 41 yards 10.25 YPC

So just like in week 14 Houston tried to do the impossible, get yards up the middle against the Pats. I still don't understand why they didn't run more tosses behind Duane Brown and get Arian into some space. The right side is the weakest link on the Houston offensive line, but it would have caught the Pats off guard if they ran it there more often. Instead they just hammered the middle only to get turned down repeatedly.
          Houston also did not take enough chances in the passing game. Schuab did not take any shots deep and instead threw more intermediate routes. Theses routes worked, but you have to at least take some chances with the ability Schuab has and having one of the best receiver's in the league, Andre Johnson. Houston had 6 plays of 20 yards or more, the longest being the 28 yard gain, off a pass to the flat to Arian when they were backed up to there own five yard line. There plays of 20+ yards were at an average of 20.83 yards and only three of them produced drives that led to points. Just like Houston the Pats had 6 plays of 20+ yards. However, all of these plays were on drives that produced points and were at an average of 32.5 yards. The Pats big plays were not off deep passes (other than Welker's 47 yard push off catch down the sideline), but came on plays where they were able to find a favorable match up or finally find some space for Welker or Hernandez. Houston does not have the same type of speed receiver's that New England has to come up with the same type of big plays, but they do have humongous possession receiver's that can be sent deep.
           The Texans offense played their best game in weeks, but it was a case of too little too late. By the time they made adjustments and started to take chances the game was over and they were only playing for pride. If Houston was more unpredictable they could have put 40+ points on the Patriots and the headlines would have read differently on Monday morning. Hopefully Gary realizes the potential this offense has and puts them in more opportunities to succeed next season.

          The worst part of Sunday wasn't the loss but the missed opportunity of playing in Houston against Baltimore for the chance to play in the AFC Championship. This week 14 rematch should have taken place this Sunday in Houston and not off the East Coast. Yes this will be another long off season filled looking into the abyss and pondering all the "what ifs"? But before you start to complain about this team, jump off the bandwagon and believe the nonsense of Houston being a fraud think about how far this team has come. Houston is still a team that has just entered its window of title contention and should win the AFC South for the next three years or until Luck becomes a Texans serial killer. This is still a great young football team, that had just finished the greatest season in franchise history and will continue to get better. Seasons will change, Spring will be here soon, the hellacious Summer heat will come and go and Fall will bring some leaves changing (don't change until December here) and Texans football. Next season Cushing will be back better than ever, the young reciver's of this year will have another full off season to get ready, Rick Smith will fix the few holes this team has and Houston will play an even more incredible year of football next year. Go Texans.

Playoff Picks
49ers over Falcons
Pats over Ravens
49ers over Pats in Superbowl 46

Divisional Round: Texans Vs Pats

 Going back to New England      

          On January 13th at 3:30, the Houston Texans are heading back to New England to attempt to avenge their 42-14 loss in week 14. The Pats completely mastered the Texans by dominating every facet of the game. Houston looked incompetent and fraudulent after this shellacking and their performance over the last four games of the regular season. Luckily, Houston looked like the suffocating anaconda-like team that won 12 games in last week's 19-13 win over Cincy. It was a game Houston controlled from the first snap, but the score was closer than the game suggested because of too many field goals (more to come later). Hopefully, this is the team that goes to New England and not those big fat phonies from the last four weeks of the regular season. Houston has to keep the boulder rolling and will need to be more disruptive than New England on defense, win the battle on third down and capitalize in the red zone to beat the Patriots.

Watt or Wilfork?

          In the week 14 match-up, Vince Wilfork shredded the Houston offensive line. He had 4 tackles at an average loss of 2.5 yards, one sack, and a forced fumble. On top of that Mayo and Hightower had six tackles each because of Wilfork's ability to gobble up double teams. In the zone running game it's not a true hip to hip double team that creates movement. What Houston does is have the center give some help and have the guard take over so the center can move up to the middle linebacker. The center's job is not to move the nose (Wilfork), but get up to the MLB. However, Wilfork is nearly impossible to move in this type of blocking technique and as a result he wreaked havoc last time they met. This week Houston will either have to have Myers give the guards more help or they will have to run outside. However, if Myers gives more help it just opens the lane for Mayo and Hightower to make tackles. So Houston should just hammer outside runs on the left side and then mix it up with some outside runs to the right. Last week Houston had 12 runs for 70 yards on outside runs to the left. Look for this trend to continue on Sunday in their attempt to neutralize Wilfork.
          On the other hand Watt did not have the performance he was accustomed to in their game earlier this year. Watt had 4 tackles at an average gain of ten yards, zero tackles for a loss, zero passes swatted, one forced fumble that was recovered in the end zone for a NE touchdown, and three quarterback hits. It was frustrating to witness how close Watt was to getting to Brady only to have him barely get the ball out in time reverse Macgruber style. To combat Brady's release Houston will have to get there quicker. Look for more stunts inside from the defensive ends to get pressure up the middle. It worked incredibly well against Cincy when Watt was able to force Dalton into poor throws and abuse the Bengals' center. On top of that, Wade is going to have to show different looks at the line then what is actually going to be used. He must camouflage their coverage and confuse Brady's pre-snap reads. On top of this, Houston can not let James, Dobbins, or Ruud cover Gronk, Hernandez or Welker. If they run any man coverage like this Brady will go right their way and pick up 8 yards a play. Hopefully, Wade will put Reed or Barwin on one of the TE, Manning on the other and Quinn on Welker and then run some zone to cover the rest of the field. Regardless of scheme, Houston must be more disruptive than NE to win this game.

3rd Down

          The past 5 weeks Houston has been a lunatic when it comes to the battle on third down.
HOU 4-14          HOU 5-13             HOU 1-11           HOU 5-11           HOU 8-17
              42-14 L                29-17 W                23-6 L                28-16 L               19-13 W
NE    6-12           IND 1-8                MIN  9-18           IND 9-15            CIN  0-9

       The past weeks has been a windy, up and down travel through the Devil's backbone for the Houston Texans when it comes to third down. There has been zero consistency from game to game. However, it's simple, if Houston does well on third down they win the game. Last time they played against NE they did a fair job, but the average third down that NE had was 4.375 yards. This week Houston needs to put New England into longer third down situations.  On top of that Houston has to get away from having long third downs. The past five weeks they have had to get 6.93 yards to reach the first down on average. As a result they have run 52 passes compared to only 16 running plays. Opposing defenses can dial in on the blitz and know exactly what is upcoming if Houston keeps putting themselves in long third down situations. This is a conclusion from the run run pass offense that has been casually run all season.
         On top of third down Houston will need to open the game up more, like what they did against Cincy, and utilize some element of surprise. Kubiak is going to need to take some shots deep against a weak NE pass defense, keep them on their heels and cultivate the running game. New England is weak against TE and third WR so Schuab must spread the ball around like what he did against Cincy. Dre should have a big game against Talib, and LeStar will make a big play. Also Houston will be able to run three TE sets that they were unable to run against NE the first time since Graham was hurt. Houston must apply every aspect of their offense if they want to beat the Belichick defense.

Red Zone Red Alert

          Houston has been homeless in the redzone as of late. It's been impossible for them to get touchdowns in the red zone. Last week they kicked three field goals that made a possible 28-13 game a 19-13 win. Kicking field goals is not a bad thing when they are in the 40 yard range and in 4th and long situations. However, most of Houston's field goals have come when they are in the red zone and their drives crap out. In the last five weeks Houston has kicked 13 field goals and have slammed it into the end zone only 5 times. This includes a streak of 8 straight field goals, none of the touchdowns have been longer than 15 yards, and 4 of the TDs are less than five yards. Houston's average field goal length during this time period is 37 yards which is a field goal kick from the 20 yard line (+10 for the length of the end zone and +7 for the distance between the line of scrimmage and where the kick actually takes place). Nine of their 14 field goals have taken place inside the redzone, that stat really is the dingleberry on top of a shit sunday. Houston has been able to move the ball, but they choke once they get to the 25 yard line. Touchdowns, not field goals will beat the Patriots on Sunday.

The Decision

          I have been sick and bored the past couple of days so I booted up NFL 2K5 on the trusty old PS2. It was almost impossible to complete a pass to Corey Bradford with David Carr, let alone even get the ball away. The defense consisted of studs like Morlon Greenwood, Travis Johnson, Antwan Peek and rookie Jason Babin. They got rammed for 7 yards on every carry by LT as a Charger. In addition to this was Faggins (I remember a time when Houston fans all were thinking he wasn't half bad, man we were oblivious to what good football was) , Glenn Earl and Dunta Robinson (who finished second on the team in tackles with 69). The 2005-2006 season Houston went 2-14 and Kubiak came in who slowly changed the culture of the organization into the successful team that we have today. The whole point to this is that yes the Texans will probably lose on Sunday, but before you start to call in talk radio and go on message boards think about how macabre the past has been. Think about David Carr and Sage Rosenfels as starting QBs. Think about Amobi Okoye at Nose Tackle. Think about all the 5 losing seasons and the three 8-8/9-7 teams that just were not good enough to make the playoffs. This is a great young team that will continue to win and get better.
          This game will be much better than the eerie week 14 match up. Houston should actually get some breaks this week, but they must play perfect football. No turnovers, play impeccable third down defense and score touchdowns, not field goals. They will be able to move the ball on the NE offense and the defense should be able to be more troublesome. Add this to the Nobody Believes in Us Factor and how not one person has picked Houston in this game thus far (except for Adam Schefter and the Simmons podcast linked might be the next podcast jinx like when NE lost to the NYG after being 17-0). I think Houston will lose just because of their inability to score touchdowns in the redzone compared to the Pats' stellar Hernandez and Gronk Duo. Pats win 31-20 and Houston will be stopped short of their first AFC title game. Schuab proves doubters wrong by winning the Pro Bowl MVP. The groundhog won't see his shadow. Winter will be long and lonely.

Other Picks
DEN over BAL (I do think HOU would win in DEN and BAL would win in NE)
SF over GB
ATL over SEA
Still SF over NE in Superbowl         

Wild Card Weekend-Texans Vs Bengals

          The Houston Texans are playing today at 3:30 against the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that exhibits a weird sense of deja vu. Everyone knows the story last season. Matt Schuab had his foot ripped off underneath a pile by Albert Haynesworth in a blowout against the Bucs and was replaced by beer bong connoisseur, Matt Leinart. In Leinart's first game as a starting QB since his days in Arizona, he managed to play well only to break his collarbone. Then came the third stringer, T.J Yates. He did the imporbabable, beat the Falcons and then the Bengals on a game winning touchdown pass with the clock down to zero and clinched the franchise's first AFC South championship. Houston then managed to lose their last three games only to beat the Bengals in the first round in the exact same time slot as this year. Last season was a great story of "what ifs" that I am sure I will tell it in the future when I am a babbling old man.
              Four weeks ago every fan and player was on the verge of climaxing at the prospect of a bye week and then having to beat the Ravens/Colts/Bengals to enter the AFC championship. After starting the season off 11-1, with eyes fixed on a Superbowl appearance, the Texans tumbled from the #1 seed to the #3 seed after going 1-3. As a result, they are now playing Wild Card weekend instead of getting vacation time. The Bengals on the other hand have broken through the wall of mediocrity. After starting the season 3-5, they have managed to go 7-1 and actually beat a team over .500. If Houston wins they then go to New England with the chance of avenging a nauseous, 42-14 loss to the Patriots. If the Bengals win they would be going to Denver, unless the Colts manage to beat the Ravens in Ray Lewis' last game. Here is everything you need to know for the 3:30 game in Reliant Stadium.

Momentum

          Every analyst, talking head, SC anchor and fan is already writing the Texans off this post season because of momentum. The advanced Stats have shown the disparate movement of the Texans from a top team in weeks 1-8 to an average one the rest of the season (scroll down for the table). However, none of this talk was heard when Houston beat the Bears on the road and won two OT games in five days. Instead, the talk was how resilient Houston is and how they are able to do anything to manage to win. Now that they have lost 3 of their last four, all against playoff teams, the talk is how they are cold and will be bounced out in the first round. The Bengals have all the "momentum" on the other hand since they finished 7-1 (only one win .500 team, the Giants who in the middle of a terrible run, not counting week 17 when all the backups played). Cincinnati has played better in the second half, but only have wins against the AFC West cellar dwellers, Giants, Eagles and a tough win against the Steelers. They have played better than Houston in the second half, but the record is mostly because of schedule difference.
          I was tired of listening how important momentum is in the playoffs almost as much as hearing Wanted-Glad you Came while at the bar or on the radio. So I went back and looked at the record for every playoff team's last four games of the regular season and then took the record of their first playoff game. I came up with the chart as followed.
Record        Wins         Losses        Percentage
1-3                 4                 3                  .500
2-2                 9                 7                  .562
3-1                13               12                 .520
4-0                 6                 6                  .500  
            There are a lot of other factors that go into these numbers like overall record entering the last four weeks, defensive, and offensive rankings. However, the main goal is just disproving the talk of the Texans having poor momentum because of their record these last 4 games. If anything being 1-3 down the stretch is better than going 4-0. Just because the Bengals went 3-1 (7-1 down the stretch) and Houston went 1-3 (5-3 down the stretch) does not give the Bengals any momentum down in this game.
          For some historical hope for the Texans chance of a deep playoff run. The Texans could end the season like the Jets in 2010. The Jets started off 9-2, then went 2-3 to end the year (2-2 last 4) and upsetted the Colts in Indy and won in NE only to lose in the AFC championship to the Steelers. Like the Jets, the Texans started off strong, lost a bye because of losses at the end of the year, but still managed to make it to the AFC championship. However, no team playing in the Superbowl has ended the year 1-3. Now that momentum is not important in this game, let's look at the actual matchups.

Arian Foster vs the Bengals Defense

          The offense has been soft and flabby of late. They have only managed 65 points in their last four games at an average of 16.25 a game. This is horrendous compared to their first 12 games when they averaged 29.25 points a game. Why has there been such a drop off when their yards gained fall in to roughly the same averages? The main reason is poor play on third downs and too many red zone field goals. Houston has been able to move the ball, only to give up a negative play or penalty that crushes their touchdown chances. Graham has kicked 7 field goals from 20-40 yards. These are drives that Houston has gone deep enough to get TDs only to fall short. This must change if they want to beat the Bengals today. I am going to punch a hole in the Ozone if Graham kicks another 24 yard field goal.
          Arian Foster is going against another tough defense this year. These last four games he has looked tired and not his usual self. His yards per carry has plummeted, but this is mostly due to the fact the cutback has not been there. Opposing defenses are starting to stay in their lanes against the zone and bottle him up. Schuab will need to get the playaction going to help open the game for Arian, not the other way around. Foster has played well against top defenses this season (using DVOA).                                        Carries            Yards             Yards Per Carry
Chicago #1 ranked defense            29                 102                      3.52
Denver #5  ranked defense             25                 105                      4.2
Miami #14 ranked defense             26                   79                      3.04
NYJ     #9  ranked defense             29                 152                      5.24
NE       #15 ranked defense            15                   46                       3.07
          A good day from Foster should be expected. I am sure he will get at least 25 carries and should have around 100 yards. The Bengals have the #10 defense and a run defense that allows 107.2 a game. Hopefully, Kubiak keeps Arian fresh and we see at least 10 carries from Tate/Forsett.

Dre and A.J

          This year the 31 year old Andre Johnson ended all talks of who the best wide receiver in the AFC is after a year of 112 catches on 164 targets, 1,598 yards and 4 touchdowns. A.J Green, 97 catches on 164 targets, 1,350 yards and 6 touchdowns will eventually take over Dre's throne as father time takes over. Both of these WR have had incredible years, but they should be harassed all day by the opposing pass defense. Houston ranks #4 and Cincinnati ranks #9 against a team's #1 wide receiver. 31% of Dalton's throws have gone towards AJ Green, but only 59.1% have been completed. Houston must not let Green beat you deep and force incompletions. Look for Houston to run a zone, but always have Joseph or Jackson covering him in man coverage. For either team to win they must not let these top wide receivers to gallop freely across the field.
          Despite, both of these teams ability to stop the #1 WR, they have been sub par when covering the #2 WR. Houston ranks #28 and Cincinatti ranks # 22 in the league. The good news for both defenses is that each QB does not throw the ball anywhere other than their top #1 WR, TE, or RB.
Walter-    41 catches 68 targets 518 yards 2 TD
Hawkins- 51 catches 80 targets 533 yards 4 TD
          Both of these players have about the same averages and each is overshadowed by their teams top WR. These last 4 weeks Walter has only seen 10 targets compared to Andre's 50. Walter/Martin/Jean/Posey should get open on a deep pass and Schuab must complete it. Also in losses Schuab has thrown 0 TDs and 5 INTs. Most of these picks have not been a result have a bad decision, but a poor throw to a receiver that has a  step on the defender. Both quarterbacks must move the ball around and whoever is most successful in this aspect may very well win the game.

The Trenches

          Each team's defense is led by a great defensive line. Watt has had the greatest season statistically of any defensive lineman in the history of the NFL. However, the Bengals have an All Pro on their line as well with Geno Atkins delivering pressure up the middle. Both offensive lines will have to neutralize either one to keep their offense in a rhythm. The Bengals O-line is ranked 28th in the league with 46 sacks and a rate of 8.3% and their defensive line is #2 with 51 sacks and a sack rate of 8.7%. The Texans defensive line is #6 with 44 sacks and a 7.2% sack rate while their O-line has allowed 28 sacks at a rate of 5.3%. Houston's O-line is marginally better than Cincy's on the ground as well. Based on the overall numbers Houston does have an advantage, but their O-line play has been suspect lately. If Houston's front seven can keep the run game to a minimum and force 3rd and 7+ look for their pass rush to abuse the Bengals offensive line. The two big match ups in this area will be Watt against Andre Roberts and Geno against Ben Jones and Wade Smith. Each team will probably run to the opposite side of these two in order to fine success running the ball, but you can't throw away from a pass rush. I believe that whichever offensive line is able to negate the others front seven the most will win.

The Prediction

          This game should be a physical, hard hitting, old school game and most likely it will be like the Bear's game in week 8. The Bengals have a similar team, one that is led by a top WR, great defense and an inconsistent QB. The past 4 weeks don't matter and the regular season schedule is wiped clean. Whoever wins this game will be the one with the better offensive line and which one is able to stop the passing game. Arian and Ellis will be fed the ball consistently, but I can't see them being able to do much more than 4 yards a carry. It will come down to Andre or Green making a big play and the quarterback utilizing his receiver's other than the big names. The past 4 weeks has displayed a Texans team from some weird alternate reality and not the team Houston really is. They will cut loose and will 20-13 in a close game.
          This is the part where analyst hat gets tipped into the air, picked off and taken for a touchdown right before the end of the half. I will always have love for Cincinatti, Houston clinched their first AFC South Title against them, won their first playoff game against them and I did enjoy my time living 15 minutes South of the Ohio River. However, Cincinatti has nothing on the Greatest Nation on Earth.
Shiner > Christain Moerlein Brewing Company
Whataburger > Skyline Chile
The Ballpark in Arlington > Great American
Tubing in a river > Finding Dead Bodies in a River
Manifest Destiny > NW Ordinance of 1785
UGK > 98 Degrees
Texans > Bengals
Go Texans. Let's go back to New England next weekend.

 

Picks for the Wild Card Round

Colts over Ravens

Texans over Bengals

Redskins over Seahawks

Packers over Vikings

49ers over Pats in Superbowl

Texans Vs Vikings Week 16 Preview

           Week 16 boasts a match up between the Texans and Vikings that is detrimental to the NFL playoff picture. Houston is 12-2 and clinches home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the oppurtunity to rest its players in week 17. The Vikings are part of the Bears, Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants, 8-6 conglomerate that need to win out to punch their ticket to keep playing in January. After Houston on Sunday, the Vikings get to play the Packers at home.  This week two records in the NFL record book remain up for smashing.  Adrian Peterson is only 294 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's 28 year record of 2105 yards rushing in a single season (apparently he plans to break it this Sunday). Houston's JJ Watt is only 3 sacks away from Michael Strahan's 22.5 single season sack record. This week's game is a battle of comfort vs survival in the playoff picture.

Pondering Ponder

          Young, raw, inexperienced opposing quarterbacks has been a trend for the Texans schedule this year. Tannehill, Gabbert, Locker, Luck and now Ponder joins the list. So far the Vikings still do not know what they have in Ponder, mainly because the offense is much more focused on Adrian Peterson's ability. This year Ponder has been a below average quarterback, but is above the Matt Cassel, John Skelton group. Just like Locker, Ponder is an exceptional athlete with a strong arm and extremely fast, but has yet to learn the nuances to play NFL quarterback at a high level. This year Ponder has a stat line of 63.1%/2527/14TDs/12INTs/78.6 and 51 rushes for 189 yards. His numbers are typical for a player in his first year as a full time starter, but unlike most young quarterbacks Ponder is in a great position to succeed. With Peterson running the way he has Ponder has faced lots of defensive sets with eight men in the box. These types of situation is what Schuab has been devouring all year long with the play action. One would think Ponder could do the same since he can run as well, but has yet to produce. His offensive line is hard to judge because Adrian Peterson inflates their ability, but it is safe to say there are better at run blocking than pass protecting. Ponder has been sacked 30 times at a rate of 7.2% which ranks 20th in the NFL. The WR group is not nearly the same without Harvin playing. Harvin still leads the team in receptions, targets, and yards even though he has yet to play since week 9 because of an ankle injury. Despite the o-line and WR group Ponder should be playing much better because of Adrian Peterson.
          Let's dive  into the Harvin injury and how it has affected Ponder's play.
                    Attempts Completions Percentage Yards    TD   INT    Rushes  Rating 
With Harvin    171             262               65.2%  1,806    10      8       29/127   78.26
W/O Harvin    97               163               59.5%     721      4      4       22/62      70.4
          Ponder has not been as good without Harvin. Without Harvin, Ponder loses the ability for big plays in the passing game. He only has 13 passes of 20 yards or more to a player not named Harvin and 4 of those are to Rudolph. His best receiver other than Harvin is TE, Kyle Rudolph who has 48 catches for 434 yards and 8 touchdowns. Ponder has been been impotent when it comes to completing passes to his wide receivers. Their number one wide receiver since Harvin has been hurt is Michael Jeinkens who averages 25.6 yards a game. Ponder has only gotten worse as the season has gone on since his hot start. The link attached shows his splits by month. In December Ponder has thrown for 341 yards, 1TD, 3 INT, and a completion percentage of 60%. The most important factor when looking at Ponder's season is that he really does not matter. His numbers are no different in games they have won when comparing them to losses. The Vikings offense has one job and that is to give it to Peterson. This strategy has worked this year, but Ponder is going to have to progress for the Vikings to ever make a deep run in the future.

Adrian Peterson is not human

          The average human needs about seven to nine months to recover from an ACL tear. Most NFL players who suffer a knee tear like him usually miss a year and are never the same. Adrian Peterson is no average man.  After tearing his ACL to shreds on Christmas Eve last year, Peterson came back at full force on September 9th this year. Running harder than he ever has, with scar tissue tearing as he gallops, Adrian Peterson is going to break the NFL rushing record. Not only that he his leading a team that should be 6-10 to a chance at 10-6 and a postseason berth.

 Player A: 289 Attempts 1812 Yards 6.27 yards a carry 11 Tds 20 20+ Runs 70 first downs

Player B:

325 Attempts 1313 Yards 4 yards a carry 14 Tds 8 20+ Runs 75 first downs

Player A is AP and Player B is Adrian Foster. By his own account Foster is having a great year, but is not even in the same solar system as Adrian Peterson. The numbers not only describe how inefficiently Foster is being used, but show how important he is in the Texans grind out offense. Peterson is having one of the greatest statistical years of all time even after being used sparingly at the beginning of the year. Not only do those numbers show how incredible he has been, Peterson has 909 yards after contact. The next best is Doug Martin with 572.Week six was the last week this year Peterson did not have a one hundred yard game. Since then he has been wreaking havoc like one of the four horseman of the apocalypse. He has 1313 yards on 176 carries, 7.46 yards a carry and 9 touchdowns. During this time period Peterson had days of 212, 210, and 182 yards and 2 games that he averaged 10 yards a carry.  The interesting part of his season is that his numbers are much worse in wins than in losses. In wins Peterson has more carries, yards and touchdowns, but his yards per carry falls. Part of this is due to the 4-1 start they had at the beginning of the year when Peterson was starting to get adjusted back into the game. The past 4 weeks the Vikings are 2-2 with 159, 119, 91, 131 yard days from Ponder and 108, 210, 154, and 212 days from Peterson. The gameplan on Sunday will be simple, give it to Peterson all day.

Texans D

          Houston's D will be up to a challenge as difficult as stopping Brady or Rodgers and we have seen how those games have gone. In the win against the Colts last week, Vick Ballard was able to run for 105 yards on 18 carries. The Colts had success in running the ball to the side opposite of JJ Watt and were able to break long runs. Houston can not let this occur this week against Peterson. Those 20 yard runs from Ballard become 80 yard runs when Peterson is in the backfield. This year Houston has allowed 1,305 yards rushing at an average of 93.2 that ranks fifth in the NFL. On top of that they have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns (the first on Thanksgiving day) and 75 rushing first downs. The most yards they have given up on the ground in one day was 158 to Chris Johnson in a 38-14 win. So far the run defense has been stout against the run and young quarterbacks. Houston is also 6-0 in games against quarterbacks with a max of two years staring in the NFL. This week also marks the return of Brooks Reed from his groin injury against the Lions. His return will add even more fresh legs to rush the passer and it will help out in coverage against Ponder's #1 target, Kyle Rudolph. Houston's defense should be looking to do one thing, stop Adrian Peterson. Antonio Smith is going to have to shore up his side of the line since Minnesota will look to run opposite of Watt. Also Houston is going to put 8 in the box so Manning should have a ten tackle game. Houston's D will have one job this weekend.
         As stated earlier Watt needs only 3 more sacks to break Strahan's ten year old sack record. There is about a 10% chance of him obtaining it this weekend. Ponder averages only 30 dropbacks a game and this number is inflated by games Vikings had to throw because of being down and the games earlier this year. Watt should be able to get one and it will be a great match up to watch him take on rookie #4 pick Matt Kalil. If Houston goes up big early, Ponder will have to throw the ball to save their season. If this situation occurs look out for Watt, Reed, Barwin and Mercilus take advantage of the Vikings 7.2% sack rate.

The Prediction

          Well here is the weekend where all the hard work for Houston finally pays off. If they win they get to stay home throughout the playoffs where the crowd noise can swing games. If they lose they have to beat Indy in week 17 to clinch. I believe Sunday will be a fast game. Both teams will run the ball and the clock will keep ticking. Peterson is looking to try to go for 294 yards and break the rushing record, but the only record he will be breaking his Chirs Johnson's record of most yards against a Texans defense. I see Peterson going for 160 and Ponder throwing for 125. Houston will get to a big lead in the third quarter and then Ponder will have to try and will the Vikings to a win. When this happens the Houston's pass rush will eat him alive like summer mosquitos in Texas. When the pass rush cranks up and the dome increases in noise, Ponder will make mistakes and thrown the ball to to Houston. Texans win 31-17 and get to rest up for the AFC semifinal. Go Texans.

Houston Texans, 2012 AFC South Champions

There should be more Gatorade showers coming in the future, get used to it Gary

 

 

         Last year, the Houston Texans finally quenched their playoff thirst after being stranded in the desert year after year searching for the right pieces to break their slump. This year they feasted on their opponents and have won a consecutive AFC South championship, but this time they are looking for much more. By beating the Indianapolis Colts 29-13 and a win by the 49ers over the Pats in New England, Houston is now in prime position for home field advantage. They now sit with a two game advantage on New England and a 1 1/2 game advantage on the Broncos (head to head tie breaker). This gives them the ability to clinch home field advantage and a first round bye with a win against the Vikings next Sunday. This also means that Houston would have to just beat either the Ravens or the Colts (barring a major upset of NE vs CIN or PIT) to reach the AFC championship. Even though the game was sloppy on Sunday, Houston controlled the game by playing their brand of football.

J.J Watt Destroyer of Worlds

          Every week, when discussing Houston's defense the conversation has to start with him. Last week he was frustrated by Brady's quick release. Every time Watt managed to get free, Brady was able to get the ball off and not take the hit. Watt did not have that problem this week as he accumulated three sacks for a share of the league with Aldon Smith with 19.5 sacks. Watt is now just 3 away from Strahan's record (Part of this is due to the fact passing is more prevalent with the rule changes now then when Strahan set it. Also all Minnesota does is run and they might have the #1 seed clinched before the next Indy game so I do not see him breaking it). If you thought the sacks were impressive, he also had ten tackles (all solo), six tackles for a loss, four quarterback hits and a forced fumble that prevented an Indianapolis touchdown. Watt's tackles accounted for a total loss of -28 yards and his tackles had an average loss of -2.8 yards. He is too fast and strong for most offensive lineman and his lightning fast swim move makes it impossible for offensive lineman to get a hold on him. His best play of the game was when he stripped Mewelde Moore at the one yard line. On the play, Watt lines up as a three technique on the outside shoulder of the left guard. Luck hands the ball to Moore who runs right behind the right guard, but Watt fights across the LG's face and makes the tackle from the back side. He makes contact while still engaged and he was able to get his hand on the ball to force the fumble. It was a play he had no business making from the position he was in. Also it seemed that every time the Colts started gaining mometum, Watt would squash it with a tackle for a loss. His all around play in the running and passing game has been outstanding. He is not just a one trick pony like Aldon Smith and Von Miller, the other defensive player of the year contenders. I believe his performance on Sunday has locked this award for him.
          In spite of the great defensive performance the Texans have had, there were a few problems. Indianapolis was able to run the ball extremely effectively to the side opposite of Watt. Ballard had a great game running 105 yards for an average of 5.83 yards per carry. On one of the drives Ballard was able to collect 67 yards which led to a Luck touchdown that made it a one possession game (23-17). At this point I was worried about another Indy comeback, but the defense shut up any notion of this. However, when the Colts got the ball back with 13:31 Houston forced a three and out, and switched the field position that led to a Graham field goal. When Indy recieved the ball the next time being down by 9, the defense made another stop on 3rd and 20 after a hit by Smith that led to an intentional grounding call.
          Again, for the fifth straight week, Houston gave up another big pass play. Indy cut the lead down to 20-10 right before the half when Luck hit T.Y Hilton for a 61 yard bomb. The Colts lined up trips left with Fleener at TE on the right. Houston came out in Dime and man to man coverage. Safety will Demps was covering Hilton. Hilton ran a post and right before his break, Demps stopped his feet for a split second allowing Hilton to run right by. Luck then threw a glorious spiral that hit Hilton in stride. This play was the only pimple on the face of a great defensive game played by Houston. In the playoffs, Houston will probably have to beat New England or Denver to reach the final game and these big plays need to stop for them to have a chance.

The Luck Stops Here

         Andrew Luck played the worst game of his career on Sunday, but it was not entirely his fault. He finished the day with a career low in yardage (186), and a line of 48.1/186/2 Tds/0 Ints. He was never able to get into a rhythm because of the pass rush Texans had on him. I counted 14 plays where Luck faced pressure that forced him to either get rid of the ball early, was hit or sacked. That comes out to being pressured on 51% of his dropbacks.  On most of the passes he was able to complete, he had to step up into the pocket because of the outside pass rush by Smith, Watt, Mercilus and Barwin. Part of the problem was Luck holds the ball too long at times, but it is nothing out of the ordinary for a rookie quarterback. Over time, as he comprehends the playbook better this will improve.
         The Colts were not bad on offense and were able to move the ball on certain drives, but the sloppy play killed their chances. In the first half Indy lost 14 points because of this. In the first quarter, on their second drive the Colts were finally able to break through and move the ball on the Houston defense. They reached the Texans 34 to get into Vinateri field goal range only to be pushed out by a Watt sack. Luck had enough time to find a reciever, but Watt eventual broke through. He then tried to outrun Watt to make a play, but was quickly tackled for a loss of 15 that put them at the 49. The next two plays that followed were incompletions and the drive went from a field goal chance to a punt. Indy also lost 7 points on the Watt-forced fumble. In the second on third and goal from the Houston eight, Luck hit Wayne in the back of the end zone for a touchdown. On the play there was an offsides by Antonio Smith and a holding penalty by Heard. These offsetting penalties removed the touchdown and the subsequent play was an incompletion. Another drive another lost opportunity.

Field Goal City

          The offense did enough to secure a Texans W, but they still have been ordinary. They have had spurts of great play followed by inability to do anything. This week, the inconsistency came in the red zone. Houston kicked way too many field goals on drives that should have yielded touchdowns. Graham kicked field goals of 29 yards (drive of 69 yards), 35 yards (drive of 63), 27 yards (drive of 78 yards), 46 yards (drive of 41 yards),  and 33 yards (drive of 78 yards). There is nothing more frusturating for an offense than to move the ball down the field only to sputter at the end. The main reason for the field goals were stupid mistakes. Penalties and negative plays (sacks and tackles for a loss) killed all the momentum that they had going.
          On the bright side Schuab looked much better than he did last week. His throws were crisp and accurate and he did not miss the open man.
New England   59.4%/232/0TD/1INT/68.8
Indy                  74%/262/1TD/0INT/109.7
He looked more like the Matt Schuab we all know against Indy than against New England. Playing against a porous pass defense helps out a whole lot. Schuab did play a much better game, but he needs to elevate his performance next time he steps on the field in prime time. Also Posey/Jean/Martin are starting to get more accustomed to the offense and have added some dynamite to it. Schuab now has another deep threat other than Johnson. Teams are going to start double teaming Andre to try to slow him down which will open up the deep ball for that trio. It still remains to be seen if this trio will be able to hook up, but the opportunity will be there.
          After the Boston Massacre on Monday the media started the "is Houston any good?" talks again. And again Houston bounced back with another two possession win. Houston suffocated Andrew Luck with their pressure and kept Luck from getting into a groove. The offense had 439 total yards and was able to move the ball, but failed to score touchdowns. Houston is AFC South champions again, but this time they are healthy and are playing for more than just making it to the playoffs.  After the loss to Green Bay, Houston answered with a six game winning streak. Let's hope this happens again since another win streak of the same amount would result in an improbable Super Bowl win.

Texans Vs Colts Week 15

14-2 Or Bust

          As of right now, we are a little less than twenty four hours away from game one of the Texans Colts two game series. A couple of years ago the NFL made a scheduling change to put divisional games at the end of the season to make weeks 16 & 17 more meaningful. As a result, Houston is playing Indy two games in three weeks with the AFC belt and playoff positioning dangling waiting for the winner of this ladder match to snag it. Houston is trying to recover from a vintage New England beat down that plummeted them back to Earth. Whereas the Colts came back from behind again and beat the Titans to push their record to 9-4 which keeps them alive in the AFC South hunt. For Houston this game is more than just winning the division. Houston still has its hands clasped around the #1 seed in the AFC at 11-2, but they are just one game up on the Pats (tie breaker over Houston) and Broncos (Houston has tie breaker over). I still believe for Houston to have a chance to reach the Superbowl they need to get the bye (don't have to play Colts or Pats until the AFC title) and have home field advantage (don't have to go to NE or DEN). After losing to the Pats last week they will probably need to win out to make this dream a reality unless the Pats lose to the Niners. Houston must respond and play their best game against the magical Colts to keep the dream alive. The Football season starts in September, but playoff teams are made in December.

Are the Colts Any Good?

           The Colts are in the midst of a Disney like season with their eyes set on the playoffs after being one year removed a 2-14 heartless, Manningless season . Despite their record, the real question that remains is, are the Colts any good? This year the Colts are 9-4, but they are 8-1 in one score games. 8-1! The only team they beat by more than one score was the Jaguars, a game they won 27-10. This stat is extremely unsustainable, despite the emotions they play with every week. In losses the average game score is 39.25-17.75. That is a margin of 21.5 that adds up to three TDs. The Colts have lost to Chicago, Jacksonville, New York Jets and New England. Their average record equal out to losses is 6.5 wins but the Jags 2-11 record really brings this average down. In games they have won the average score is 24.5-19.1, a margin of 5.4. The average record of teams they have beat is 5-8. Indy is 7-1 against teams below 500, have yet to beat a team above 500 since Green Bay which is also the first game Bruce Arians coached. Since Arians has taken over for Pagano the Colts are 8-2. When given this data its easy to see the Colts are not very good and either lucky or magical. When emotion comes into play in athletics, the unbelievable usually happens and the Colts are an example of this. Since Pagano has started his chemotherapy for Leukemia the Colts have won in wild ways.  However, being 8-1 in one score games and having an average win margin of 5.4 is not going to last. Even if you look at DVOA the Colts are ranked 28th and their one score game record has catapulted them into the playoff race. Regardless of their record, the Colts are an average team at the least. 

Raining on the Parade

         The Houston D has been awful since the Jacksonville game and most of this blame can be placed on the passing defense. The past month of football has seen atrocious pass defense for Houston. Part of it is due to injuries, but poor performance and schemes is the main reason why they have been awful. Henne, Stafford, Locker, and Brady have combined for an average completion percentage of 51%/11 Tds/3 Ints/11 sacks (6 against TEN) and an average quarterback rating of 96.7. The results have yielded some exciting games and three wins, but not the performance that they are capable of. The biggest problem has been the big play, Cecil Shorts, Blackmon, Calvin Johnson, and Lloyd all have made plays of 30+ yards. Daunte Stallworth caught a 63 yard TD pass even, Daunte Stallworth of all people. Yes Joseph was out for three of those games, yes Quin has been hurt, yes Reed is gone, but it is no excuse for how they have been playing. Monday Night Football was extremely frustrating because of how Wade called the game. Linebackers were covering Welker and Hernandez throughout the first half and were burned as a result. Every time Brady saw this match up he attacked it and destroyed Houston's defense. In the second half, he did a great job putting Manning on Hernandez and corners on Welker, but by the third quarter the game was already over.

         Hopefully this disturbing trend shifts toward Houston's favor against Andrew Luck. This year Luck has a line of /3,792/55%/18TDs/18INTs/74. Luck is having one of the greatest seasons a rookie quarterback has ever had. As a result, Indy puts the entire offense on Luck's arm every game because of the all the one score games they play. They need for him to make huge plays and game winning drives to reach their 8-1 one score record. He has made some mistakes by trying to force the ball where he should not. Despite his 18 INTs, without Luck, Indy would be a 4-12 team.  In losses Luck has a line of 1,236/50.8%/5TDs/9INTs/61. He is the key to their 9-4 record since they live and die on his arm. This week Indy will be missing two starting offensive lineman, Winston Justice (RT) and Samson Satele (C) and they pressure on Luck will only increase. For Houston to beat Indy they can not let Luck make big plays down the field like opposing quarterbacks have the past month. 

         

          If Houston wins they clinch the AFC South and retain the #1 seed with Minnesota and Indianapolis to end the year. For Houston to beat Indy they need to have the pass rush dialed up and beat up on their second string offensive lineman. Look for Watt and Mercilus to have huge games rushing the quarterback. If Houston puts pressure on Luck he will make poor throws which lead to interceptions. The offense should be able to run rampant and hopefully ubiak calls a more unpredictable game. The run run pass offense is going to have to go for them to win in the post season and they need to change it now. Last team Houston lost they went on to win six straight games until falling to New England. This team is too good and too proud to not play their best game on Sunday. I think Houston will pick off Luck, get a big lead and win huge. Watch out if it comes down to a close game because Indy has been otherwordly in close games. I see Houston showing Indy that faires are not real by winning 31-10. Bust out the Listerine because we are getting the awful taste out of our mouth and bringing the AFC South title back home. Go Texans.

Key Factor's That Can Help Houston Triumph

As the Monday night quickly approaches, we as Texans supporters have to realize that this match-up is no walk in the park. All week the Texans have been preparing for this game and how to stop the juggernaut New England offense. The Patriots offense is very fast, can go vertical, and nickel or dime you down the field. Which results in touchdowns and quickly tires out opposing defenses. On top of that, it will be a cold and rainy night in New England with low foretasted to get down to 40 degrees with rain falling down constantly. This will be the toughest challenge of the year by far, but Houston is no slouch and has played their brand of football every week. Houston will be looking to come out and hit Tom and Co. right square in the mouth. I have come up with a few keys to the game that can really help Houston come away with the victory in this one.

Get the running game going early

I know it is said every week that this is what Houston has to do early to help the passing game but this time we really need to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. In Arian Foster's first career start, he happened to be matched up against the Patriots and that was the game that solidified him as the stalwart in the Houston backfield for good. He ran the ball 20 times, racked up 119 yards and 2 td's in the final five minutes of the game to give the Texans a 34-27 comeback win over the Patriots and lead Houston to it's first winning season in franchise history. The pace Arian has been on this year carries wise shows that Kubiak will be trying to use him plenty but will also be mixing in Forsett and Tate to try and keep Foster in the game longer. Houston must be able to stay on the field as long as possible to keep Tom Brady off the field because we have all seen what their offense does. I see Arian getting 25+ touches and breaking the 100 yard mark early in the 3rd quarter, and if all goes according to plan 2 td's to keep the offense's pace.

Get to Tom early and often

We all know what Tom Brady can do when he has time to sit back in the pocket and the only way to really beat him is to keep him under pressure and off the field. Watt will be getting double teamed constantly to try and neutralize him, but that doesn't mean that the rest of the bulls on parade can't get in on the action. Connor Barwin and Whitney Mercilus are gonna have to beat the tackles all game long and cause Brady to move up in the pocket where Watt, Cody, and Ninja Assassin will be waiting to eat his lunch. Since it will be a wet and wild game, forcing Brady to move around will make him more likely to turn the ball over and give us the time to be on the field. Tom turns the ball over very little but this weather mixed with are pass swatting abilities and solid tackling from the front 7 can ensure that the turnovers will start to happen. Houston will have to win the turnover battle to win this game.

Let the offense set the tone

Everyone in the NFL knows that defenses are usually the ones that change the whole momentum of the game and I completely agree with that. This week though, it is the offense that needs to set the tone to ensure that the game can roll in favor of Houston. If Houston comes out throwing and mixes in the run well, it will be a long day for the Patriots defense that has been known to give up some big chunks of yards. If the offense rolls, so will the defense and the game momentum will take us to victory. If the offense does not get it going, the defense will be suspect and be heavily relied upon to spark the team and get the ball rolling in the Texans direction which has been done many times this year.

Overall, I see this being a dog fight where the game could really go either way and most likely will be decided by a field goal at the end of regulation. Something close to maybe 27-24 with either team being on top, but if the Texans execute their game plan to perfection, this W will be going back home to Houston. The Space City will erupt with Texans pride and have all the doubters eating their words and rethinking this whole "the Texans are overrated BS". I know I am confident in my team, now it's time for the rest of football to realize that we are the at the top of the AFC and we're here to stay.

Texans Vs Titans Week 13 Recap

Clinchin' Ain't Easy

          After a dominating, soul crushing performance, the Houston Texans are officially going to be playing football in January again. By beating the Titans 24-10 they have secured a spot in the post season for the second year in a row. However, this year they will not be injury ridden and hobllling into the postseason, but storming into it. Houston dominated from the first snap on and there was no doubt who was going to win this one. The past three games have been a wild ride, but it was awesome to see a convincing, Texans' style win that we have grown accustomed to the past 2 seasons.

The Hurt Locker

         After being drafted #8 in the 2011 NFL draft Locker has only played 11 games in his two years in the league. Unlike the Jaguars, the Titans have stuck with their plan on how to develop Jake Locker. After they chose him, they signed the veteran Matt Hasselbeck to let him sit behind, grow and learn the nuances of the game from. Last season Locker did not start one game and played only in garbage time. In his limited action Locker had a line of 51.5%/ 542/ 4/ 0/ 99.4 (From now on when describing quarterbacks I am going to use a stat line of completion percentage/yards/TDs/INTs/Quarterback Rating.) The Titans still manage to go 9-7 last year with Hasselbeck at the helm and just missed the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. This year they went with Locker as the starting quarterback to see what they had in their number first round draft pick. He started the first four games of the season only to have his shoulder dislocated by a car crash of a hit by Glover Quin. He was able to return sooner than expected, but the injury extinguished the roll he had going after his career day in a win against Detroit.

Before injury- 3 games started 63.2%/ 781/ 4/ 2/ 89.1 and 67 rushing yards
After injury- 3 games started 50%/ 689/ 4/ 5/ 69.2 and 95 rushing yards

There is not much a different in the numbers which is good news that Jake is alive and well.  Locker's numbers have not been awful, but average and what one usually expects from a quarterback in his first year as a starter. He is dynamic, has an incredible arm and is able to make plays with his legs. The Titans need to get some play makers for him (receivers drop way too many passes) and fix their running game in order to put him in situations where he can succeed. The Titans are not disciplined enough to have long drives down the field and seem to make more mistakes the longer the drive goes. They have big play ability, but long drives are usually how most points of their points are created. Locker is still an unknown commodity and the Titans still do not know what they have with him. However one can wonder if the Titans and the Jags, drafted their franchise quarterback a year early and as a result missed out on RGIII and Andrew Luck. Regardless, of the numbers the Titans are giving Locker his shot to play since he has started in every game that he has been healthy. They need to stick with Locker and keep giving him his time to develop and wait and see if he really is the franchise quarterback they need.

Bulls On Parade 

          This was one of the greatest defensive performances in the history of the Houston Texans. With their defense decimated by injuries they tyrannized the line of scrimmage and forced the Titans into 6 turnovers.  Locker accounted for five of the six turn overs (3 INTs and 2 fumbles lost). The pass rush was dominated the Titans the entire day. Phillips consistently rushed 5 or more and forced Locker have to find the open man quickly. Locker was awful at making his pre snap reads and constantly put himself in bad positions. The offensive line did not help at all though. I counted Locker being in pressure on 24 of his 49 drop backs. The defense was able to put pressure on Locker 48.9% of the time, sack him 6 times, hit him 8 and knocked down 16 of his passes. 61.2% of Locker's passing attempts resulted in either a neutral or negative outcome. Two of Locker's interceptions were the result of passes tipped at the line of scrimmage that went up in the air for a Houston player to track down. The defense was able to play with a lead which led to the Titans looking like the Detroit Lions and not their usual more balanced offense.
        Again Chris Johnson played timid football and was not able to get anything going on the ground. Almost every running play had 4 Texans players in on the tackle as they swarmed to the ball like a shark on a wounded seal. If you go back and watch a replay of the game, every running play had multiple white shirts attacking Johnson. Houston had 7 tackles for a loss and held Johnson to 51 yards on 13 carries. One of his runs was for 26 yards and if you remove this run his yards per carry drops from 3.9 to 2.08. Chris does not help himself at all by the way he runs. He constantly looks to juke and shimmy instead of making one cut and hitting the hole. He is always looking for the big play instead of realizing gains of 4 and 6 are just as important as 20+ yard runs. The Houston defense is too quick to be dancing around and the defense line consistently moved the line of scrimmage backwards. For Tenessee to ever get back to a season like they had in 2008 they need to go back and learn how to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

          The Texans had to go call on their reserves after Brooks Reed hurt his groin chasing down a Lions receiver on Thanksgiving day. Texans Linebackers Reed, Dobbins, James, and  Cushing all have been injured this season. Regardless, Houston has manage to keep a top 5 defense because of their depth. This week Mercilus made his first career start in the NFL and man did he shine. He had two sacks, recovered a fumble and constantly put pressure on Locker. With Reed out until maybe the post season Houston will not lose a step with Mericlus starting and Barwin at strong side linebacker. Mercilus' performance will go unnoticed in the national spotlight because JJ Watt  devoured the Titans offense. Against Tennessee Watt had five tackles, three for a loss, one sack, two swats (one of which led to a Dobbins INT) and a forced fumble. JJ is having one of the greatest seasons a defensive lineman in the NFL has ever had. Watt has become the first defensive lineman in the history of the NFL to knock down 15 passes and have 15 sacks. All of which has been from a position that is supposed to open holes for linebackers by swallowing up double teams. Teams in the NFL will eventually get smart and double team him every play like what the Bears did. Until then we will get to see this immovable object keep terrorizing offenses and stay the top candidate for defensive player of the year.
          The only problem the defense had against the Titans was big plays. The secondary was torched for 309 yards and gave up 300+ passing yards for the third straight game. Part of this is due to injuries, since Houston has guys playing that did not even suit up at the beginning of the year. Brandon Harris did an adequate job, but he led the team with 6 tackles (5 of them were on pass plays) which is one stat category no one wants a corner to lead the team in. Jake Locker went 6 for 9, 193 yards and one touchdown on deep throws. Locker had completions of 25, 34, 49, and 38. This does not bode well for the Patriots game next week, but hopefully Joseph will be ready to go by then. Overall, the defense shut up any doubts about their ability as a unit.

The Big Nastys

          With starting right tackle Derek Newton missing the Texans offensive line controlled the game. They held the Titans to a clean sheet and Schaub had an even cleaner jersey. I counted 8 plays where Schuab faced pressure which comes out to 22.8% of the time he had to deal with a defender near him. This was done against a down and out beggarly defensive line that ranks 22nd in the league, but it should not diminish the immense job they did. The passing game looked a little rusty due to Schuab being a little inaccurate 60%/ 207/ 2/ 0/ 95.8. He seemed to miss some wide open receivers at time, but he had to fall back down to earth sometime. The running game was back to its old ways and Tate was finally back in pads. Houston ran the ball 35 times for 121 yards and one touchdown. Foster, Forsett and Tate each got 14, 14, and 3 carries respectively (It was nice to see Foster rest and not run 20+ times). Duane Brown was the star of the offensive line as Houston was able to run to the left edge 11 times for 37 yards and one touchdown. Week after week they run behind him and week after week they have success. After years of having awful to average LTs protecting the blind side they have franchise cornerstone in Duane Brown. The curse of Tony Boselli has finally been lifted and I bet David Carr would have liked to play with him during his time in Houston. Rick Smith and Kubiak have done an incredible job putting this unit together. 6 out of the 11 members of the offensive line were drafted by Houston. Only one of the six was drafted using a first round pick. Three of the five starters were drafted by Houston as well. Like the linebackers the depth is incredible as they have lost two starters this year, but not the production. Despite the injuries, Houston dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball on Sunday.

The Week Ahead

         I spent most of my life watching playoff football wondering "what it feels like to have a winning franchise and watch a championship contender?" Here we are Texans' fans and it is hard to fathom and describe how great these past two years have been. It is like having a best friend that had a rough some rough middle/high school years. When he was still in elementary school his dad left his mom and moved to Tennessee.  To top it off he was a little slow, chubby and was the butt of all the jokes. His old friend that protected him was quarterback and captain of the football team, but it never led to wins. He ended up moving to New York, backed up for a prep school and won two state titles. Because of his weight and more popular older brother, his parents spoiled him with presents. He saved his money then invested it in the stock market. Now everyone that picked on him suddenly wants to hang out. He is about to go to an Ivy League Graduate School, his extra weight helped spur a colossal growth spurt and his stocks did incredibly well. His older, cooler, popular brother now lives at home, smokes a lot of pot and spends most of his time thinking about the glory days. Now he finally gets the chance at redemption by proving to the father that left him how great he has become while his older brother watches at the wayside. The most important part of this story is that you were there the entire time and helped him when he needed it the most, unlike all the creatures who now have leeched their way on to the bandwagon. Most of the time it takes climbing through a mound of crap for good things to happen. After years of terrible football the Texans' window is open and they are ready to parade right through it.
          The Texans beat the 4-8 Tennessee Titans to and stuck it right in Bud Adam's wrinkly face. The defense finally looked rested and played up to the standards they set for themselves this year. Hopefully it continues this Sunday and Jonathon Joseph is back and healthy. Houston heads up to the Northeastern United States to go to war with the 9-3 New England Patriots.The Texans are playing on Monday night to put a stranglehold on the #1 seed and what could very well be the precursor to and AFC championship rematch.