The One That Got Away

          Shayne Graham (the worst 50+ yard field goal kicker in NFL history) hit a 55 yarder in Gillette Stadium with the clock at zero giving the Pats a slim 17-13 lead. It seemed like something magical might be happening after Houston went on a 10-0 run to end the half. However, Brady quickly put flour on the grease fire and outscored Houston 14-0 in the third. With the score at 31-13, I left work to hurry home and catch the end of the Texans Pats game and I thought there was a slim chance a magical comeback could still occur. Right before I hopped into my car I looked up at the fuchsia, pink and purple sun setting sky only to see a menacing waxing crescent moon mischievously grin at me. It was as if Bill Belichick himself was laughing at my futile hope of Houston hosting the AFC championship against the Baltimore Ravens and then going back in time to tell my five year old self there is no Santa Clause. When I turned the key AM 1300 coaxed me through the game until I could see it with my own two eyes at home. On 4th and One Marc Vandemeer gave me the terrible news, Matt Schuab's pass to Posey would fall incomplete and then on the next play Brady hits Vereen on a 33 yard touchdown pass to make it an insurmountable 38-13 game. When playing the Pats you have to play a perfect game, and the Texans almost did enough. If one or two things went differently it could have been Tom Brady on the couch, eating cereal in his sweat pants. However, the coaching staff failed, the offense was stagnant and as a result Houston was thrown out of the playoffs in the divisional round for the second straight year.

Son of Bum

          After Houston's week 14 loss I was expecting Wade to not make the same mistakes on defense in the rematch only to see the same critical errors play out. It felt like an Alzheimer's patient walking from Starbucks to Starbucks forgetting that they just had a non fat soy latte. It was frustrating to see Barwin or Reed blitz on every play only to not get their in time while James and Rudd were left in pass coverage. Combined Barwin and Reed had 10 tackles (one for a loss), half a sack and 3 quarterback hits. The benefit of bringing them on every down did not outweigh James and Rudd in pass coverage. Also Brady is very difficult to blitz because of how well he is able to read the defense pre-snap and his ability to get the ball out in time. When blitzing from an outside nine technique, Phillips' is putting Reed and Barwin in a nearly impossible setting to get to Brady. The pressure to get to Brady needed to come from the middle, but Phillips kept doing what did not work in week 14.
          The other problem with Phillips was the pass coverage, Shane Vereen caught 5 passes for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. Two of his long passes he caught came in situations where Vereen was split out as a wide receiver when Houston was in man coverage.When he was split out wide Rudd or James was covering him both times and Brady knew exactly where he was going to go with the ball. The first time could have simply been a misunderstanding, but to have it happen again for a 33 yard touchdown pass to end the game is ridiculous. Wade must see this play the first time and have some type of audible, instead of just letting a MLB play out wide in man coverage again.
          The final gripe I have with Wade is his inablilty to prepare for the Pats. The Pats were able to run around 12 free plays or so because Houston was not lined up right. Two of New England's red zone touchdown runs (8 yards by Ridley 24-13 and 1 yard by Vereen 7-3) were the result of Houston not being prepared for the no huddle. It was just like the week 14 touchdown pass to Hernandez in the red zone where not one person was covering him out wide. As a defensive coordinator you have to prepare for the no huddle throughout the week and at least have some type of base defense to run when Brady is scampering to the line quickly. Houston's defense did a great job disguising coverages, stopping the run and deflecting passes, but the Pats were able to break big plays that outweighed the good.

Offensive Troubles

          From the first offensive snap, Houston beat themselves. After a 94 yard return by Manning, Houston needed only 12 yards to stun the New England crowd and go up 7-0. Then the following series of plays ensued, Foster run LG for 3 yards (tackle by Wilfork), dropped pass by Casey and then a pass way over the outstretched arms of a wide open Andre Johnson. If Houston puts up 7, instead of New England's defense winning and only allowing three, the entire dimensions of the game change. The pressure would have been immediately on the Pats and Houston's offense would have had their confidence early. The Texans are a completely different team when they have a lead then when they are playing from behind.  When trying to upset the Pats on the road you have to capitalize on every opportunity given. The red zone woes that had plagued Houston the last 5 weeks haunted them again on the first drive of this game.
          The problem for Houston was not a problem moving the ball, but negative/low yardage plays on first down that forced them into long third down situations. On Sunday Houston punted the ball 5 times and each of the 5 times was a result of not getting enough yards on first down .On drives that the ended with a punt Houston averaged 1.4 yards on first down. Four of these plays were runs (-1,2,0,6) and one was an incomplete pass to Owen Daniels. Most of these drives ended with a series of run up the middle for a little or nothing and then 2 incomplete passes on 2nd and 3rd down. On most of these first down running plays New England new exactly what was coming and they would blitz up the middle making it impossible to get more than 2 yards. In addition to that, on 3 out of the 5 drives that ended with a punt,Vince Wilfork made the tackle on first down that put Houston into a hole.
         On first down Houston had 12 runs for 69 yards at an average of 5.75 and 16 passes for 170 at an average of 10.625. Now if you get rid of Arian's 2 long first down runs that led to Houston's first touchdown that number would be 2.9 yards a carry. So on average Houston would start with a 2nd and 7 after running on first down. On the other hand, Houston had ten passes for 104 yards (11.55 yards a pass) on first down before the 4th quarter when they had to throw every play. New England knew Houston would want to run the ball on first down and got caught with their pants down when they did the opposite. Instead of being unconventional and attempting different ways to beat the NE defense, Houston opted for the predictable run run pass offense.
         The other two problems Houston had on offense was in their running play selection and big plays. Last week in the preview I discussed how difficult it is to move the ball up the middle against the Pats. Trying to run the ball at Wilfork is like trying to move Snorlax to get to Fuschia City without having the PokeFlute to wake him up. So what did Houston do in the run game?

              LEFT SIDE                                         MIDDLE                                    RIGHT SIDE
  6 carries 23 yards 3.83 YPC                 17 carries 27 yards 1.58 YPC        4 carries 41 yards 10.25 YPC

So just like in week 14 Houston tried to do the impossible, get yards up the middle against the Pats. I still don't understand why they didn't run more tosses behind Duane Brown and get Arian into some space. The right side is the weakest link on the Houston offensive line, but it would have caught the Pats off guard if they ran it there more often. Instead they just hammered the middle only to get turned down repeatedly.
          Houston also did not take enough chances in the passing game. Schuab did not take any shots deep and instead threw more intermediate routes. Theses routes worked, but you have to at least take some chances with the ability Schuab has and having one of the best receiver's in the league, Andre Johnson. Houston had 6 plays of 20 yards or more, the longest being the 28 yard gain, off a pass to the flat to Arian when they were backed up to there own five yard line. There plays of 20+ yards were at an average of 20.83 yards and only three of them produced drives that led to points. Just like Houston the Pats had 6 plays of 20+ yards. However, all of these plays were on drives that produced points and were at an average of 32.5 yards. The Pats big plays were not off deep passes (other than Welker's 47 yard push off catch down the sideline), but came on plays where they were able to find a favorable match up or finally find some space for Welker or Hernandez. Houston does not have the same type of speed receiver's that New England has to come up with the same type of big plays, but they do have humongous possession receiver's that can be sent deep.
           The Texans offense played their best game in weeks, but it was a case of too little too late. By the time they made adjustments and started to take chances the game was over and they were only playing for pride. If Houston was more unpredictable they could have put 40+ points on the Patriots and the headlines would have read differently on Monday morning. Hopefully Gary realizes the potential this offense has and puts them in more opportunities to succeed next season.

          The worst part of Sunday wasn't the loss but the missed opportunity of playing in Houston against Baltimore for the chance to play in the AFC Championship. This week 14 rematch should have taken place this Sunday in Houston and not off the East Coast. Yes this will be another long off season filled looking into the abyss and pondering all the "what ifs"? But before you start to complain about this team, jump off the bandwagon and believe the nonsense of Houston being a fraud think about how far this team has come. Houston is still a team that has just entered its window of title contention and should win the AFC South for the next three years or until Luck becomes a Texans serial killer. This is still a great young football team, that had just finished the greatest season in franchise history and will continue to get better. Seasons will change, Spring will be here soon, the hellacious Summer heat will come and go and Fall will bring some leaves changing (don't change until December here) and Texans football. Next season Cushing will be back better than ever, the young reciver's of this year will have another full off season to get ready, Rick Smith will fix the few holes this team has and Houston will play an even more incredible year of football next year. Go Texans.

Playoff Picks
49ers over Falcons
Pats over Ravens
49ers over Pats in Superbowl 46